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Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles

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  • Daniele Tavani
  • Peter Flaschel
  • Lance Taylor

Abstract

We introduce the results of a non-parametric estimate of the US wage-Phillips Curve into a simplified version of the model of the wage-price spiral by Flaschel and Krolzig (2008). Making use of Okun’s law, the non-linearity in the wage inflation-employment relation translates into a non-linearity in the so-called ‘distributive curve’ of the economy. Exploiting the observed non-linearity in extending an otherwise standard demand-distribution model (Taylor 2004), we provide a dynamical analysis both in wage-led and profit-led effective demand regimes. In a profit-led scenario, shown to be the empirically relevant case for the US economy, there are two stable equilibria of Goodwin (1967) growth cycle type, identified as a stable depression and a stable boom, and a saddle-path stable equilibrium in between them. Both stable steady states are surrounded by trajectories that cycle counterclockwise around their basins of attraction. The obtained type of growth fluctuations can be verified by a long phase cycle estimation for the US economy using a method developed by Kauermann, Teuber and Flaschel (2008).

Suggested Citation

  • Daniele Tavani & Peter Flaschel & Lance Taylor, 2011. "Estimated non-linearities and multiple equilibria in a model of distributive-demand cycles," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 519-538, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:irapec:v:25:y:2011:i:5:p:519-538
    DOI: 10.1080/02692171.2010.534441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tavani, Daniele, 2012. "Wage bargaining and induced technical change in a linear economy: Model and application to the US (1963–2003)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 117-126.
    2. Daniele Tavani & Peter Flaschel & Lance Taylor, 2010. "Estimated Non-linearities & Multiple Equilibria in a Model of Distributive-Demand Cycles," SCEPA working paper series. SCEPA's main areas of research are macroeconomic policy, inequality and poverty, and globalization. 2010-6, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    3. Skott,Peter, 2008. "Conflict and Effective Demand in Economic Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521066310, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Tavani, Daniele, 2012. "Wage bargaining and induced technical change in a linear economy: Model and application to the US (1963–2003)," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 117-126.
    2. Daniele Tavani & Luca Zamparelli, 2017. "Government spending composition, aggregate demand, growth, and distribution," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 5(2), pages 239-258, April.
    3. Michalis Nikiforos, 2014. "Distribution-led Growth in the Long Run," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_814, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. repec:ilo:ilowps:470930 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. David Kiefer & Codrina Rada, 2015. "Profit maximising goes global: the race to the bottom," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 39(5), pages 1333-1350.
    6. Tavani, Daniele & Vasudevan, Ramaa, 2014. "Capitalists, workers, and managers: Wage inequality and effective demand," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 120-131.
    7. Hiroaki Sasaki & Ryunosuke Sonoda & Shinya Fujita, 2013. "International Competition and Distributive Class Conflict in an Open Economy Kaleckian Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(4), pages 683-715, November.
    8. Storm, Servaas. & Naastepad, C.W.M., 2012. "Wage-led or profit-led supply : wages, productivity and investment," ILO Working Papers 994709303402676, International Labour Organization.
    9. Robert Jump & Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2017. "Wage led aggregate demand in the United Kingdom," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 565-584, September.
    10. Armon Rezai, 2012. "Goodwin Cycles, Distributional Conflict And Productivity Growth," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(1), pages 29-39, February.
    11. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2016. "Increased Shareholder Power, Income Distribution, and Employment in a Neo-Kaleckian Model with Conflict Inflation," Discussion papers e-16-008, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
    12. Michalis Nikiforos & Duncan Foley, 2011. "Distribution and Capacity: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Evidence September," Working Papers 1105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Greg Hannsgen, 2012. "Fiscal Policy, Unemployment Insurance, and Financial Crises in a Model of Growth and Distribution," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_723, Levy Economics Institute.
    14. Hiroaki Sasaki & Jun Matsuyama & Kazumitsu Sako, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Effects of the Wage Gap between Regular and Non-Regular Employment and Minimum Wages," Discussion papers e-12-003, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.
    15. Peter Flaschel & Alfred Greiner, 2011. "A Future for Capitalism," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14241.
    16. Michalis Nikiforos, 2011. "On the Desired Rate of Capacity Utilization," Working Papers 1116, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    17. Sasaki, Hiroaki & Matsuyama, Jun & Sako, Kazumitsu, 2013. "The macroeconomic effects of the wage gap between regular and non-regular employment and of minimum wages," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 61-72.
    18. Rudiger von Arnim & Jose Barrales, 2015. "Demand-driven Goodwin cycles with Kaldorian and Kaleckian features," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, July.
    19. Greg Hannsgen & Tai Young-Taft, 2015. "Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal Policy Model: The Unit of Account, Inflation, Leverage, and Financial Fragility," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_839, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Greg Hannsgen, 2014. "Fiscal Policy, Chartal Money, Mark-up Dynamics and Unemployment Insurance in a Model of Growth and Distribution," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(3), pages 487-523, July.
    21. Ryunosuke Sonoda, 2014. "Price and Nominal Wage Phillips Curves and the Dynamics of Distribution in Japan," Discussion papers e-14-009, Graduate School of Economics Project Center, Kyoto University.

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