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Pseudo-Goodwin cycles in a Minsky model

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  • Engelbert Stockhammer
  • Jo Michell

Abstract

Goodwin cycles result from the dynamic interaction between a profit-led demand regime and a reserve army effect in income distribution. The paper proposes the concept of a pseudo-Goodwin cycle. We define this as a counter-clockwise movement in output and wage share space which is not generated by the usual Goodwin mechanism. In particular, it does not depend on a profit-led demand regime. As a demonstration, a simple Minsky model is extended by adding a reserve army distribution adjustment mechanism. The wage share responds positively to output but generates no feedback. In the augmented Minsky model, cycles are generated purely through the interaction between financial fragility and demand. By design, demand is not influenced by changes in income distribution. But the model does exhibit a pseudo-Goodwin cycle in the output-wage share space. This holds true even if a wage-led demand regime is introduced. This demonstrates that the existence of a counter-clockwise movement of output and the wage share cannot be regarded as proof of the existence of a Goodwin cycle and a profit-led demand regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Engelbert Stockhammer & Jo Michell, 2014. "Pseudo-Goodwin cycles in a Minsky model," Working Papers PKWP1405, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  • Handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1405
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jo Michell, 2014. "Speculation, financial fragility and stock-flow consistency," Chapters,in: The Great Recession and the Contradictions of Contemporary Capitalism, chapter 7, pages 112-133 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Desai, Meghnad & Henry, Brian & Mosley, Alexander & Pemberton, Malcolm, 2006. "A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2661-2670, December.
    3. Veneziani, Roberto & Mohun, Simon, 2006. "Structural stability and Goodwin's growth cycle," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 437-451, December.
    4. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Onaran, Ozlem, 2004. "Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-447, December.
    5. Marc Lavoie & Mario Seccareccia, 2001. "Minsky's financial fragility hypothesis: a missing macroeconomic link?," Chapters,in: Financial Fragility and Investment in the Capitalist Economy, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
    7. Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy-A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    8. Mohun, Simon & Veneziani, Roberto, 2006. "Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004," MPRA Paper 30444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nishi, Hiroshi, 2018. "Balance-of-payments-constrained Cyclical Growth with Distributive Class Conflicts and Productivity Dynamics," MPRA Paper 86780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:289-317 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:elg:ejeepi:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p131-172 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Robert A. Blecker, 2016. "Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: the long and the short of it," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 4(4), pages 373-390, October.
    5. Maria Nikolaidi & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2017. "Minsky Models: A Structured Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1304-1331, December.
    6. Salle, Isabelle & Seppecher, Pascal, 2018. "Stabilizing an unstable complex economy on the limitations of simple rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 289-317.
    7. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Dany Lang, 2016. "Is the Market Really a Good Teacher? Market Selection, Collective Adaptation and Financial Instability," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-15, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    8. Erixon, Lennart, 2016. "Building a path of equality to economic progress and macroeconomic stability - the economic theory of the Swedish model," Research Papers in Economics 2016:3, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    9. Eckhard Hein, 2017. "Post-Keynesian macroeconomics since the mid 1990s: main developments," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 131-172, September.
    10. Pascal Seppecher & Isabelle Salle & Dany Lang, 2016. "Is the Market Really a Good Teacher? Market Selection, Collective Adaptation and Financial Instability," GREDEG Working Papers 2016-15, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
    11. Robert A. Blecker, 2015. "Wage-led Versus Profit-led Demand Regimes: The Long and Short of It," Working Papers 2015-05, American University, Department of Economics.
    12. Thomas I. Palley, 2014. "Rethinking wage vs. profit-led growth theory with implications for policy analysis," IMK Working Paper 141-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Yannis Dafermos, 2015. "Debt cycles, instability and fiscal rules: a Godley-Minsky model," Working Papers 20151509, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    14. Rudiger von Arnim & Jose Barrales, 2015. "Demand-driven Goodwin cycles with Kaldorian and Kaleckian features," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 351-373, July.
    15. Heinrich, Torsten, 2016. "The Narrow and the Broad Approach to Evolutionary Modeling in Economics," MPRA Paper 75797, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Goodwin cycle; Minsky cycle; financial fragility; distribution cycles; Post Keynesian economics;

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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