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Pseudo-Goodwin cycles in a Minsky model

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  • Engelbert Stockhammer
  • Jo Michell

Abstract

Goodwin cycles result from the dynamic interaction between a profit-led demand regime and a reserve army effect in income distribution. The paper proposes the concept of a pseudo-Goodwin cycle. We define this as a counter-clockwise movement in output and wage share space which is not generated by the usual Goodwin mechanism. In particular, it does not depend on a profit-led demand regime. As a demonstration, a simple Minsky model is extended by adding a reserve army distribution adjustment mechanism. The wage share responds positively to output but generates no feedback. In the augmented Minsky model, cycles are generated purely through the interaction between financial fragility and demand. By design, demand is not influenced by changes in income distribution. But the model does exhibit a pseudo-Goodwin cycle in the output-wage share space. This holds true even if a wage-led demand regime is introduced. This demonstrates that the existence of a counter-clockwise movement of output and the wage share cannot be regarded as proof of the existence of a Goodwin cycle and a profit-led demand regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Engelbert Stockhammer & Jo Michell, 2014. "Pseudo-Goodwin cycles in a Minsky model," Working Papers PKWP1405, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
  • Handle: RePEc:pke:wpaper:pkwp1405
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jo Michell, 2014. "Speculation, financial fragility and stock-flow consistency," Chapters, in: Riccardo Bellofiore & Giovanna Vertova (ed.), The Great Recession and the Contradictions of Contemporary Capitalism, chapter 7, pages 112-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Desai, Meghnad & Henry, Brian & Mosley, Alexander & Pemberton, Malcolm, 2006. "A clarification of the Goodwin model of the growth cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2661-2670, December.
    3. Veneziani, Roberto & Mohun, Simon, 2006. "Structural stability and Goodwin's growth cycle," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 437-451, December.
    4. Stockhammer, Engelbert & Onaran, Ozlem, 2004. "Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a Kaleckian macro model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-447, December.
    5. Marc Lavoie & Mario Seccareccia, 2001. "Minsky's financial fragility hypothesis: a missing macroeconomic link?," Chapters, in: Riccardo Bellofiore & Piero Ferri (ed.), Financial Fragility and Investment in the Capitalist Economy, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
    7. Nelson H. Barbosa‐Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy—A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, July.
    8. Mohun, Simon & Veneziani, Roberto, 2006. "Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004," MPRA Paper 30444, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; Goodwin cycle; Minsky cycle; financial fragility; distribution cycles; Post Keynesian economics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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