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Is there an equilibrium rate of unemployment in the long run?

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  • Engelbert Stockhammer

Abstract

This paper examines the existence and stability of a long-run equilibrium rate of unemployment in a Post-Keynesian growth model and contrasts it with the NAIRU model. In the latter the equilibrium rate of unemployment determines unanticipated inflation in the short run and actual unemployment and output in the long run. The real balance effect plays the pivotal role in the transition from the short run to the long run. For the Keynesian model we take the Marglin-Bhaduri (1990) model as our starting point and complement it by Okun's Law for the labor market and a wage curve type of relation for distribution. The distinction between wage-led and profit-led growth regimes in the Marglin-Bhaduri model turns out to be crucial for the long-run equilibrium rate of unemployment. In the profit-led regime, there is a stable equilibrium rate of unemployment that, NAIRU-like, determines growth. In the wage-led regime, however, the equilibrium rate of unemployment is not stable. The long run is thus but a succession of short-run equilibria. Therefore the goods market dominates the labor market even in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Engelbert Stockhammer, 2004. "Is there an equilibrium rate of unemployment in the long run?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 59-77.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:16:y:2004:i:1:p:59-77 DOI: 10.1080/0953825032000145463
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    Cited by:

    1. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2011. "Fiscal Policy in the Macroeconomic Policy Mix: A Critique of the New Consensus Model and a Comparison of Macroeconomic Policies in France, Germany, the UK and Sweden from a Post-Keynesian Perspective," Chapters,in: Credit, Money and Macroeconomic Policy, chapter 12 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2013. "Cyclical growth in a Goodwin–Kalecki–Marx model," Journal of Economics, Springer, pages 145-171.
    3. Eckhard Hein & Marc Lavoie & Till van Treeck, 2008. "Some instability puzzles in Kaleckian models of growth and distribution: A critical survey," IMK Working Paper 19-2008, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    4. Olivier Allain, 2006. "La modération salariale : le point de vue des (néo-)kaleckiens," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00196500, HAL.
    5. Hein, Eckhard & Schoder, Christian, 2009. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation: A Post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," IPE Working Papers 04/2009, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    6. Eckhard Hein & Marc Lavoie & Till van Treeck, 2011. "Some instability puzzles in Kaleckian models of growth and distribution: a critical survey," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 587-612.
    7. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2010. "Endogenous technological change, income distribution, and unemployment with inter-class conflict," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 123-134, May.
    8. Eckhard Hein & Achim Truger, 2006. "Germany's post-2000 stagnation in the European context - a lesson in macroeconomic mismanagement," IMK Working Paper 03-2006, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Vasiliki Bozani, 2011. "NAIRU, Unemployment and Post Keynesian Economics," Working Papers 1105, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    10. Christian R. Proaño & Peter Flaschel & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Mamadou Bobo Diallo, 2011. "Monetary policy and macroeconomic stability under alternative demand regimes," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 569-585.
    11. Eckhard Hein & Christian Schoder, 2011. "Interest rates, distribution and capital accumulation -- A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 693-723, November.
    12. Lavoie, Marc. & Stockhammer, Engelbert., 2012. "Wage-led growth : concepts, theories and policies," ILO Working Papers 994709363402676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Osmar Leandro Loaiza Quintero, 2012. "La demanda agregada y la distribución del ingreso: un estudio a partir de los modelos de crecimiento kaleckianos," REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA, UN - RCE - CID.
    14. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2012. "Is the long-run equilibrium wage-led or profit-led? A Kaleckian approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 231-244.
    15. Hein, Eckhard, 2016. "The Bhaduri/Marglin post-Kaleckian model in the history of distribution and growth theories: An assessment by means of model closures," IPE Working Papers 66/2016, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    16. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2005. "Arbeitsmarktrigiditäten Oder Nachfragemangel? Die Ursachen Der Arbeitslosigkeit In Europa," Working Papers geewp45, Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Group: Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness.
    17. Hiroaki Sasaki, 2008. "Endogenous Technological Change and Distribution with Inter-Class Conflict: A Kaleckian Model of Growth," TERG Discussion Papers 237, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    18. Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2010. "Endogenous technological change, income distribution, and unemployment with inter-class conflict," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 123-134, May.
    19. Basak Kus, 2012. "Financialisation and Income Inequality in OECD Nations:1995-2007," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 43(4), pages 477-495.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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