Goodwin cycles and the U.S. economy, 1948-2004
This paper provides empirical support for an interpretation of the Goodwin growth cycle as isolating the main forces underlying distributive conflict, but in a fragile symbiotic mechanism because of endogenous forces that modify the balance of class power. Goodwin cycles are the shorter run cycles that appear around a long run motion that is the product of structural change. The paper describes long run trends in the Goodwin variables in the US corporate economy from 1948 to 2004, which exhibit both a sharp break at the beginning of the 80s, and no long run cycles. Short run detrended Goodwin cycles are identified, which broadly coincide in period and timing with the NBER dating of (the troughs of) business cycles. The paper then divides the employed nonfarm private industry labour force into supervisory and nonsupervisory workers, and focuses on the latter. The same two conclusions apply.
|Date of creation:||2006|
|Date of revision:|
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- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
- Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 349-76, May.
- Veneziani, Roberto & Mohun, Simon, 2006. "Structural stability and Goodwin's growth cycle," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 437-451, December.
- Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 139-173, 06.
- Gérard Duménil & Dominique Lévy, 1993. "The Economics Of The Profit Rate," Books, Edward Elgar, number 153.
- Simon Mohun, 2006. "Distributive shares in the US economy, 1964--2001," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 30(3), pages 347-370, May.
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