The empirical relevance of Goodwin’s business cycle model for the US economy
The paper attempts to verify Richard Goodwin's (1967) endogenous business cycle theory which states that the driving forces behind fluctuations are class struggles between capitalists and workers about income distribution. Based on a Marxian profit-led model, non-linear differential equations lead to endogenous cycles in the wage-share-employment-space which can be observed empirically. Applying a bivariate vector autoregressive model we analyze the relationship between real unit labor costs and the employment rate for the US economy over a period from 1948:1 to 2006:4. Granger-causality tests, orthogonalized impulse response functions and forecast error variance decomposition are conducted for the raw data as well as the cyclical components of the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King filter methods. We verify the profit-led character of the US goods market and find that income distribution is driven by labor market dynamics.
|Date of creation:||26 Feb 2010|
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Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
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- Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2011.
"Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run,"
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- Engelbert Stockhammer & Robert Stehrer, 2009. "Goodwin or Kalecki in Demand? Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Short Run," Working Papers wp203, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
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NBER Technical Working Papers
0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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NBER Working Papers
14950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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- Nelson H. Barbosa-Filho & Lance Taylor, 2006. "Distributive And Demand Cycles In The Us Economy-A Structuralist Goodwin Model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 389-411, 07.
- Harvie, David, 2000. "Testing Goodwin: Growth Cycles in Ten OECD Countries," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 24(3), pages 349-76, May.
- Bénédicte Vidaillet & V. D'Estaintot & P. Abécassis, 2005. "Introduction," Post-Print hal-00287137, HAL.
- Jonathan P. Goldstein, 1999. "Predator–Prey Model Estimates of the Cyclical Profit Squeeze," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 139-173, 06.
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