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Whatever Happened to the ‘Goodwin Pattern’? Profit Squeeze Dynamics in the Modern American Labour Market

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  • Mark Setterfield

Abstract

The ‘Goodwin pattern’ — an anti-clockwise rotation in real activity × wage share space recurring at intervals that correspond roughly to the duration of business cycles — is an enduring feature of high-frequency dynamics in capitalist economies. It is well known that the centre or focus of this rotation shifts over time. More recently, however, the Goodwin pattern seems to have broken down, the wage share no longer increasing as the real economy improves over the course of short-term booms. In this paper, the apparent breakdown of the Goodwin pattern is associated with the consolidation of an ‘incomes policy based on fear’ that is part-and-parcel of neoliberalism. As a result of this incomes policy based on fear, the institutional structure of the labour market disciplines labour at any rate of unemployment. This decouples wage-share dynamics from the state of the real economy, with the result that as recently witnessed in the US, the wage share is rendered invariant to improvements in economic performance over the course of short-term cyclical booms.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Whatever Happened to the ‘Goodwin Pattern’? Profit Squeeze Dynamics in the Modern American Labour Market," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 263-286, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:35:y:2023:i:1:p:263-286
    DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2021.1921357
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jose Barrales‐Ruiz & Rudiger von Arnim & Mikidadu Mohammed, 2023. "Income distribution and economic activity: A frequency domain causal exploration," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 306-327, May.
    2. repec:uta:papers:2025-03 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Cajas Guijarro, John, 2024. "An extended Goodwin model with endogenous technical change and labor supply," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 699-710.
    4. Barrales-Ruiz, Jose & Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2025. "Changing quantile distributive growth cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 441-456.
    5. Stamegna, Marco, 2022. "Induced innovation, the distributive cycle, and the changing pattern of labour productivity cyclicality: a SVAR analysis for the US economy," MPRA Paper 113855, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Codrina Rada, Ansel Schiavone, Rudiger von Arnim, 2021. "Goodwin, Baumol & Lewis: How structural change can lead to inequality and stagnation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2021_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    7. Codrina Rada, Marcio Santetti, Ansel Schiavone, Rudiger von Arnim, 2021. "Post-Keynesian vignettes on secular stagnation:From labor suppression to natural growth," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2021_05, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    8. Mark Setterfield & George Wheaton, 2026. "Animal Spirits and the Goodwin Pattern," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(1), pages 2-16, February.
    9. Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Neoliberalism: An Entrenched but Exhausted Growth Regime," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(79), pages 131-146, May.
    10. Rada, Codrina & Tavani, Daniele & von Arnim, Rudiger & Zamparelli, Luca, 2023. "Classical and Keynesian models of inequality and stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 442-461.
    11. repec:uta:papers:2025-02 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

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