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Transformative Investitionen als Treiber eines neuen Wirtschaftsbooms?

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Krebs

    (University of Mannheim)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die Wachstumseffekte oeffentlicher Investitionen in die sozial-oekologische Transformation von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Die Analyse zeigt, dass eine drastische Ausweitung der oeffentlichen Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen in Deutschland einen Wirtschaftsboom ausloesen und gleichzeitig die Transformation zur Klimaneutralitaet unterstuetzen kann. In einem Positiv-Szenario ist mit jaehrlichen Wachstumsraten von bis zu drei Prozent ueber einen laengeren Zeitraum zu rechnen. In diesem Sinne ist ein gruenes Wirtschaftswunder moeglich. Dieses Positiv-Szenario wird jedoch nur Wirklichkeit werden, wenn die oeffentliche Hand die Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen drastisch erhoeht – dauerhaft um rund zwei Prozent des BIPs. Ebenso moeglich ist ein Negativ-Szenario, in dem die deutsche Wirtschaft ueber mehrere Jahre kaum waechst. Ein solches Stagnationsszenario wird mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreten, wenn die Bundesregierung an ihrer aktuellen Finanzpolitik festhaelt und so eine wachstumstreibende Investitionsoffensive verhindert.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Krebs, 2024. "Transformative Investitionen als Treiber eines neuen Wirtschaftsbooms?," Working Papers 1, Forum New Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:agz:wpaper:2401
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Krebs, Tom, 2024. "Finanzierung öffentlicher Zukunftsinvestitionen nach dem Haushaltsurteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts," Schriften zu Wirtschaft und Soziales, Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung e.V., Berlin, number 307927.
    2. Adam Hermann, 2024. "Die politische Ökonomie des Parteiensystems," Wirtschaftsdienst, Sciendo, vol. 104(9), pages 618-625.

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    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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