IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/agz/wpaper/2401.html

Transformative Investitionen als Treiber eines neuen Wirtschaftsbooms?

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Krebs

    (University of Mannheim)

Abstract

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht die Wachstumseffekte oeffentlicher Investitionen in die sozial-oekologische Transformation von Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Die Analyse zeigt, dass eine drastische Ausweitung der oeffentlichen Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen in Deutschland einen Wirtschaftsboom ausloesen und gleichzeitig die Transformation zur Klimaneutralitaet unterstuetzen kann. In einem Positiv-Szenario ist mit jaehrlichen Wachstumsraten von bis zu drei Prozent ueber einen laengeren Zeitraum zu rechnen. In diesem Sinne ist ein gruenes Wirtschaftswunder moeglich. Dieses Positiv-Szenario wird jedoch nur Wirklichkeit werden, wenn die oeffentliche Hand die Klima- und Sozialinvestitionen drastisch erhoeht – dauerhaft um rund zwei Prozent des BIPs. Ebenso moeglich ist ein Negativ-Szenario, in dem die deutsche Wirtschaft ueber mehrere Jahre kaum waechst. Ein solches Stagnationsszenario wird mit hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreten, wenn die Bundesregierung an ihrer aktuellen Finanzpolitik festhaelt und so eine wachstumstreibende Investitionsoffensive verhindert.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Krebs, 2024. "Transformative Investitionen als Treiber eines neuen Wirtschaftsbooms?," Working Papers 1, Forum New Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:agz:wpaper:2401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://newforum.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/FNE-WP01-2024-1.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2024
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Krebs, Tom & Scheffel, Martin, 2016. "Quantifizierung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen und fiskalischen Effekte ausgewählter Infrastruktur- und Bildungsinvestitionen in Deutschland," Working Papers 16-13, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    2. Valerie Cerra & Sweta Chaman Saxena, 2008. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 439-457, March.
    3. Blanchard, Oliver & Cerutti, Eugenio & SUmmers, Lawrence, 2015. "Inflation and Activity - Two Explorations and Their Monetary Policy Implications," Working Paper Series 15-070, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    4. John Hassler & Per Krusell & Conny Olovsson, 2021. "Directed Technical Change as a Response to Natural Resource Scarcity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(11), pages 3039-3072.
    5. Brand, Claus & Coenen, Günter & Hutchinson, John & Saint Guilhem, Arthur, 2023. "The macroeconomic implications of the transition to a low-carbon economy," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    6. Fazzari, Steven M. & González, Alejandro, 2025. "How large are hysteresis effects? Estimates from a Keynesian growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tom Krebs & Isabella Weber, 2024. "Can Price Controls be Optimal? The Economics of the Energy Shock in Germany," Working Papers 3, Forum New Economy.
    2. Melissa van Rensburg, 2023. "Long-run trends in New Zealand’s real neutral interest rate," Treasury Analytical Notes Series an23/05, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. Mendieta-Muñoz, Ivan, 2015. "Is potential output growth falling?," MPRA Paper 68278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Benguria, Felipe & Matsumoto, Hidehiko & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Furceri, Davide & Kilic Celik, Sinem & Jalles, João Tovar & Koloskova, Ksenia, 2021. "Recessions and total factor productivity: Evidence from sectoral data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 130-138.
    7. Mirko Abbritti & Mr. Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Market Regulation, Cycles and Growth in a Monetary Union," IMF Working Papers 2019/123, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Barnichon, Regis & Matthes, Christian & Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2016. "Assessing the Non-Linear Effects of Credit Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 11410, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. JaeBin Ahn & Romain Duval & Can Sever, 2025. "Macroeconomic Policy, Product Market Competition, and Growth: The Intangible Investment Channel," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 21(4), pages 1-38, October.
    10. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    11. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Pål Ulvedal, 2025. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-70, January.
    12. Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Tomohiro Hirano & Ryo Jinnai, 2023. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 333-371, April.
    13. Philip Barrett & Sonali Das & Giacomo Magistretti & Evgenia Pugacheva & Philippe Wingender, 2023. "Long COVID? Prospects for economic scarring from the pandemic," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 227-242, April.
    14. John Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2025. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(4), pages 691-710, August.
    15. Lorenzo Di Domenico & Santiago José Gahn & Davide Romaniello, 2024. "Testing the Waters of Positive Hysteresis: The Effects of Autonomous Demand Shocks on Inflation, Accumulation, and Labor in the US Economy," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP64, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione 'Piero Sraffa'.
    16. Bruna Santos & Leonardo Costa & Francisca Guedes de Oliveira, 2024. "The Euro Area 12: A Comparative Assessment of Its Member States in the Period 1998–2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.
    17. Patrik Barisic & Tibor Kovac, 2022. "The effectiveness of the fiscal policy response to COVID-19 through the lens of short and long run labor market effects of COVID-19 measures," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 46(1), pages 43-81.
    18. Gonzalo Castañeda & Luis Castro Peñarrieta, 2024. "Give me a U, give me a V, give me an L!: How effective are countercyclical policies in shaping the output dynamic during recessions," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(1), pages 107-133, February.
    19. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:agz:wpaper:2401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Xhulia Likaj (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/edagzus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.