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Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle

Author

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  • Claudio Borio
  • Marco Jacopo Lombardi
  • Fabrizio Zampolli

Abstract

A frequently neglected aspect of financial booms and busts - financial cycles - is their impact on fiscal positions. And yet, the latest financial crisis and history show that these cycles can wreak havoc with public finances. After reviewing the impact of financial cycles on fiscal positions, we offer a new tool to estimate cyclically adjusted balances, illustrate its performance, explore its strengths and weaknesses, and sketch out a way forward to measuring sustainability in a more holistic way.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:552
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    3. Bjarni G. Einarsson & Kristófer Gunnlaugsson & Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson & Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2016. "The long history of financial boom-bust cycles in Iceland - Part II: Financial cycles," Economics wp72, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    4. Claudio Borio & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "Is Monetary Policy Less Effective When Interest Rates Are Persistently Low?," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Jonathan Hambur & John Simon (ed.),Monetary Policy and Financial Stability in a World of Low Interest Rates, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Floro, Danvee, 2019. "Testing the predictive ability of house price bubbles for macroeconomic performance: A meta-analytic approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-181.
    6. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:71-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Assessing fiscal policy through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles," BIS Working Papers 638, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Péter Fáykiss & Alexandr Palicz & János Szakács & Márton Zsigó, 2018. "Experiences of Debt Cap Regulations in Hungarian Retail Lending," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 17(1), pages 34-61.
    9. Lenarčič, Črt, 2021. "Estimating business and financial cycles in Slovenia," MPRA Paper 109977, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Adarov, Amat, 2021. "Dynamic interactions between financial cycles, business cycles and macroeconomic imbalances: A panel VAR analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 434-451.
    11. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    12. Mark A. Carlson & Jonathan D. Rose, 2016. "Can a Bank Run Be Stopped? Government Guarantees and the Run on Continental Illinois," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-3, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. ZACHARIADIS, Savvas, 2020. "A Post-Keynesian Approach As An Alternative To Neoclassical In The Explanation Of Monetary And Financial System," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 24(1), pages 21-35, March.
    14. Robertson, D. & Tambakis, D., 2016. "Long-Run Debt Ratios with Fiscal Fatigue," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1674, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Agustín S. Bénétrix & Philip R. Lane, 2015. "Financial Cycles and Fiscal Cycles," Trinity Economics Papers tep0815, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    16. Enrique Alberola & Rocio Gondo & Marco Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2017. "Output gaps and stabilisation policies in Latin America: The effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 35(82), pages 40-52, April.
    17. Gabriela Corina Slusariuc, 2018. "The Quality of Lending the Economy," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 18(1), pages 231-238.
    18. Lee, Dong Jin & Hahm, Joon-Ho & Park, Hail & Park, Ki Young, 2020. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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