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Non-linear Effects of Taxation on Growth

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  • Jaimovich, Nir
  • Rebelo, Sérgio

Abstract

We study a model in which the effects of taxation on growth are highly non-linear. Marginal increases in tax rates have a small growth impact when tax rates are low or moderate. When tax rates are high, further tax hikes have a large, negative impact on growth performance. We argue that this non-linearity is consistent with the empirical evidence on the effect of taxation and other disincentives to investment and innovation on economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2012. "Non-linear Effects of Taxation on Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 9261, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9261
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    Cited by:

    1. Du Rietz, Gunnar & Johansson, Dan & Stenkula, Mikael, 2013. "Swedish Labor Income Taxation (1862–2013)," Working Paper Series 977, Research Institute of Industrial Economics, revised 10 Sep 2015.
    2. Donatella Baiardi & Paola Profeta & Riccardo Puglisi & Simona Scabrosetti, 2019. "Tax policy and economic growth: does it really matter?," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 282-316, April.
    3. Jonathan D. Ostry & Andrew Berg & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2014. "Redistribución, desigualdad y crecimiento," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 16(30), pages 53-81, January-J.
    4. Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2017. "Tax policy and the macroeconomy: Measurement, identification, and non-linearities," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(82), pages 10-17, April.
    5. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "The Growth Trade-off between Direct and Indirect Taxes in South Africa: Evidence from a STR Model," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(3 (Fall)), pages 233-250.
    6. Chernov, Mikhail & Schmid, Lukas & Schneider, Andres, 2016. "A Macrofinance View of U.S. Sovereign CDS Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 11576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
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    9. Novales, Alfonso & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2014. "Optimal time-consistent fiscal policy in an endogenous growth economy with public consumption and capital," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 104-117.
    10. Alex Bell & Raj Chetty & Xavier Jaravel & Neviana Petkova & John Van Reenen, 2017. "Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation," CEP Discussion Papers dp1519, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    11. Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2017. "Tax policy and the macroeconomy: Measurement, identification, and non-linearities," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 35(82), pages 10-17, April.
    12. Alex Bell & Raj Chetty & Xavier Jaravel & Neviana Petkova & John Van Reenen, 2019. "Do Tax Cuts Produce More Einsteins? The Impacts of Financial Incentives vs. Exposure to Innovation on the Supply of Inventors," CEP Discussion Papers dp1597, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    13. repec:kap:jecgro:v:23:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s10887-017-9150-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gilbert Mbaraa & Ryszard Kokoszczyński, 2018. "Corporate governance, tax evasion and business cycles," Working Papers 2018-10, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    15. repec:kap:jeczfn:v:123:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s00712-017-0549-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. José Alves, 2018. "A DSGE Model to Evaluate the Macroeconomic Impacts of Taxation," Working Papers REM 2018/62, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    17. Shafi, Maryam & Asghar, Zahid, 2015. "Tax Policy and Economic Growth: A Semi-Parametric Approach Using AMT," MPRA Paper 66662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Mino, Kazuo, 2015. "A simple model of endogenous growth with financial frictions and firm heterogeneity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 20-23.
    19. repec:eee:moneco:v:94:y:2018:i:c:p:79-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:liu:liucej:v:14:y:2017:i:2:p:265-301 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Giampaolo Arachi & Valeria Bucci & Alessandra Casarico, 2015. "Tax structure and macroeconomic performance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 635-662, August.
    22. Arawatari, Ryo & Hori, Takeo & Mino, Kazuo, 2018. "On the nonlinear relationship between inflation and growth: A theoretical exposition," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 79-93.
    23. Croce, Mariano Massimiliano & Nguyen, Thiên Tung & Raymond, Steve & Schmid, Lukas, 2018. "Government Debt and the Returns to Innovation," CEPR Discussion Papers 12617, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    24. Bishnu, Monisankar & Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan, 2016. "Factor income taxation, growth, and investment specific technological change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 133-152.
    25. repec:eee:reecon:v:71:y:2017:i:3:p:373-383 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; taxes;

    JEL classification:

    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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