IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/japwor/v54y2020ics0922142519300635.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Dong Jin
  • Hahm, Joon-Ho
  • Park, Hail
  • Park, Ki Young

Abstract

We estimate “finance-adjusted” trend growth and natural rates of Japan and South Korea by extending a semi-structural model of (Laubach and Williams, 2003). Consistent with international evidence of the advanced economies, both trend growth and natural rates of interest of Japan and South Korea have been declining over the past, suggesting the important role of global factors. However, the declining patterns of Japan and South Korea are far steeper during the past 25 years. When considering domestic and global financial factors, trend growth and natural rate of South Korea are more affected by foreign financial factor while the role of domestic financial factor is more pronounced for Japanese economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Dong Jin & Hahm, Joon-Ho & Park, Hail & Park, Ki Young, 2020. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest with Financial Gaps: The Cases of Japan and South Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:54:y:2020:i:c:s0922142519300635
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2020.101009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0922142519300635
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.japwor.2020.101009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mikael Juselius & Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mathias Drehmann, 2017. "Monetary Policy, the Financial Cycle, and Ultra-Low Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 55-89, September.
    2. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    3. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    4. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    5. Ikeda, Daisuke & Saito, Masashi, 2014. "The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 37-48.
    6. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas Smith, 2015. "Secular Drivers of the Global Real Interest Rate," Discussion Papers 1605, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Sudo, Nao & Takizuka, Yasutaka, 2020. "Population Aging And The Real Interest Rate In The Last And Next 50 Years: A Tale Told By An Overlapping Generations Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 2060-2103, December.
    8. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    9. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.
    10. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    12. John C Williams, 2015. "The Decline in the Natural Rate of Interest," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 50(2), pages 57-60, April.
    13. Mathias Drehmann & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2012. "Characterising the financial cycle: don't lose sight of the medium term!," BIS Working Papers 380, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Krustev, Georgi, 2019. "The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 193-210.
    16. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    18. Rhys R. Mendes, 2014. "The Neutral Rate of Interest in Canada," Discussion Papers 14-5, Bank of Canada.
    19. Grintzalis, Ioannis & Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2017. "The implications of global and domestic credit cycles for emerging market economies: measures of finance-adjusted output gaps," Working Paper Series 2034, European Central Bank.
    20. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    21. Claudio E. V. Borio & Philip Lowe, 2004. "Securing sustainable price stability: should credit come back from the wilderness?," BIS Working Papers 157, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Kei Imakubo & Haruki Kojima & Jouchi Nakajima, 2018. "The natural yield curve: its concept and measurement," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 551-572, September.
    23. Andrea Pescatori & Jarkko Turunen, 2016. "Lower for Longer: Neutral Rate in the U.S," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 708-731, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yosuke Okazaki & Nao Sudo, 2018. "Natural Rate of Interest in Japan -- Measuring its size and identifying drivers based on a DSGE model --," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-6, Bank of Japan.
    2. Robert C. M. Beyer & Lazar Milivojevic, 2023. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(28), pages 3195-3214, June.
    3. Krustev, Georgi, 2019. "The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 193-210.
    4. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    5. Michael Buchner, 2020. "Fiscal Policy in an Age of Secular Stagnation," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(3), pages 398-429, September.
    6. Amat Adarov, 2022. "Financial cycles around the world," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3163-3201, July.
    7. Mr. Fei Han, 2019. "Demographics and the Natural Rate of Interest in Japan," IMF Working Papers 2019/031, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    9. Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schnabel, Isabel & Truger, Achim & Wieland, Volker, 2019. "Den Strukturwandel meistern. Jahresgutachten 2019/20 [Dealing with Structural Change. Annual Report 2019/20]," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201920.
    10. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
    11. Hongjin Li & Naifang Su, 2020. "Financial Factors, Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(4), pages 76-100, July.
    12. Joscha Beckmann & Klaus-Jürgen Gern & Nils Jannsen, 2022. "Should they stay or should they go? Negative interest rate policies under review," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 885-912, October.
    13. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    14. Brand, Claus & Goy, Gavin W & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2020. "Natural rate chimera and bond pricing reality," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224546, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    15. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Growth prospects, the natural interest rate, and monetary policy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-34.
    16. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2022. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with the Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(6), pages 1637-1671, September.
    17. COMUNALE Mariarosaria & STRIAUKAS Jonas, 2017. "Unconventional monetary olicy: interest rates and low inflation. A review of literature and methods," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2017026, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    18. Sudo, Nao & Takizuka, Yasutaka, 2020. "Population Aging And The Real Interest Rate In The Last And Next 50 Years: A Tale Told By An Overlapping Generations Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 2060-2103, December.
    19. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    20. Harendra Behera & Sitikantha Pattanaik & Rajesh Kavediya, 2015. "Natural Interest Rate: Assessing the Stance of India’s Monetary Policy under Uncertainty," Working Papers id:7654, eSocialSciences.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural rate of interest; Trend growth; State-space model; Monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:54:y:2020:i:c:s0922142519300635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505557 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.