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The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints

Author

Listed:
  • Felipe, Jesus

    () (Asian Development Bank)

  • Lanzafame, Matteo

    () (Università degli Studi di Messina)

  • Zhuang, Juzhong

    () (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

We estimate the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s potential growth rate in 2012 at 8.7% and at 9.2% for the average of 2008–2012, about the same as the average actual growth rate for this period. This rate is the natural growth rate, that is, the rate consistent with a constant unemployment rate and stable inflation. The PRC’s natural growth rate displays a downward trend since 2006, when it peaked at 11.1%. Probably the Great Recession has been an important factor, although we argue that there are other factors. We show that the PRC’s potential growth rate is not demand constrained, in particular by the balance of payments. The PRC’s potential growth rate is determined by the supply side of the economy, in particular by: (i) changes in the structure of the economy, in particular in the share of industrial employment; (ii) the working-age population; (iii) the share of net exports in gross domestic product (GDP); (iv) export growth; (v) the share of foreign direct investment (FDI) in GDP; and (vi) human capital accumulation.

Suggested Citation

  • Felipe, Jesus & Lanzafame, Matteo & Zhuang, Juzhong, 2014. "The People’s Republic of China's Potential Growth Rate: The Long-Run Constraints," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 418, Asian Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0418
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maroto-Sánchez, Andrés & Cuadrado-Roura, Juan R., 2009. "Is growth of services an obstacle to productivity growth? A comparative analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 254-265, December.
    2. Matteo Lanzafame, 2014. "The balance of payments-constrained growth rate and the natural rate of growth: new empirical evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(4), pages 817-838.
    3. L. Randall Wray & Xinhua Liu, 2014. "Options for China in a Dollar Standard World: A Sovereign Currency Approach," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_783, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Wray , L. Randall & Fernandez Lommen, Yolanda, 2013. "Monetary and Fiscal Operations in the People’s Republic of China: An Alternative View of the Options Available," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 380, Asian Development Bank.
    5. Miguel A. LeÛn-Ledesma & A. P. Thirlwall, 2002. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 441-459, July.
    6. Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Roberts & Cai Fang, 2015. "Potential Growth and Rebalancing in China," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 29-38, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance of payments constrained growth rate; Kalman filter; natural growth rate; Okun’s Law; People’s Republic of China; potential growth rate;

    JEL classification:

    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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