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Economic growth and balance-of-payments constraint in Vietnam

Listed author(s):
  • Alberto Bagnai

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Gabriele d'Annunzio University (Italy))

  • Arsène Rieber

    ()

    (CREAM, Rouen University (France))

  • Anh Dao Tran

    ()

    (CREAM, Rouen University (France))

Our paper applies a multi-country BoP constrained growth model to Vietnam for the period 1985-2010. We find that Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted by the model during the entire period considered, but with different behavior for the 1998-2010 sub-period. The relative price effect is neutral, allowing the volume effects to dominate in setting the BoP constraint. The high income elasticities of exports enable growth in the advanced countries to have a multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. However, this effect is hindered by a high “appetite” for imports coming from Asia. We also assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam’s growth for the period 2011-2017.

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Paper provided by Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy) in its series a/ Working Papers Series with number 1302.

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Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2013
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of Post-Keynesian Economics
Handle: RePEc:ais:wpaper:1302
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  1. Faini, Riccardo & Clavijo, Fernando & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel, 1992. "The fallacy of composition argument : Is it relevant for LDCs' manufactures exports?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 865-882, May.
  2. Ardeshir Sepehri & A Haroon Akram-lodhi, 2005. "Transition, savings and growth in Vietnam: a three-gap analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 553-574.
  3. Jörg Mayer, 2003. "The Fallacy Of Composition: A Review Of The Literature," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 166, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
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  7. Cline, William R., 1982. "Can the East Asian model of development be generalized?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 81-90, February.
  8. Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  10. A. P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview," Studies in Economics 1111, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  11. John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
  12. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie & Kaukab Naqvi, 2010. "Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 477-496.
  13. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
  14. Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
  15. Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-273.
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