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Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam

  • Alberto Bagnai

    ()

    (Université Gabriele D’Annunzio, Chieti, Italie)

  • Arsène Rieber

    ()

    (Université de Rouen, France)

  • Thi Anh-Dao Tran

    ()

    (UMR DIAL, IRD, Vietnam)

(english) Our paper examines the long run relationship between economic growth and the current account balance equilibrium by relying on the BoP constrained growth model. We find that Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted when the period 1985 to 2010 as a whole is considered, but with different behavior for the 1998-2010 sub-period. The relative price effect is neutral, allowing the volume effects to dominate in setting the BoP constraint. The high income elasticities of exports enable growth in the advanced countries to have a multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. However, this effect is hindered by a high ‘appetite’ for imports coming from Asia. We also assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam’s growth for the period 2011 to 2017. _________________________________ (français) En se basant sur le modèle de croissance contrainte par la balance des paiements, notre papier examine la relation de long terme au Vietnam entre la croissance économique et l'équilibre de la balance courante. Nous trouvons que sur l’ensemble de la période 1985-2010, le Vietnam a connu un taux de croissance inférieur à celui prédit par le modèle, mais avec une évolution divergente sur la souspériode 1998-2010. L'effet des prix relatifs est neutre, amenant les effets volume à prédominer dans la détermination de la contrainte de balance des paiements. Les élasticités de revenu élevées des exportations permettent à la croissance des pays avancés d'exercer un effet multiplicateur sur l'économie Vietnamienne. Cependant, cet effet est contrecarré par un appétit élevé d’importations venant d'Asie. Nous évaluons également l'impact de la crise actuelle sur la croissance du Vietnam pour la période 2011-2017.

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File URL: http://www.dial.ird.fr/media/ird-sites-d-unites-de-recherche/dial/documents/publications/doc_travail/2013/2013-06
File Function: First version, 2013
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Paper provided by DIAL (Développement, Institutions et Mondialisation) in its series Working Papers with number DT/2013/06.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dia:wpaper:dt201306
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