IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties

Listed author(s):
  • Alberto Bagnai

    ()

    (Department of Economics, Gabriele d'Annunzio University)

  • Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina

    ()

    (Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries)

We develop a medium-sized annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy. The theoretical framework is the usual AS/AD model, where the demand side is specified along Keynesian lines, and the supply side adopts a standard neoclassical technology, with Harrod neutral technological progress. The empirical specification consists of 140 equations, of which 29 stochastic, with 55 exogenous variables. The model structure presents some distinct features, among which the disaggregation of the foreign trade block in seven trade partner regions (thus representing the bilateral imports and exports flows in function of the regional GDP and of the bilateral real exchange rates), and the explicit modelling of the impact of labour market reforms on the wage setting mechanism (which explains the shift in the Phillips curve observed over the last two decades). The model is conceived for the analysis of the medium- to long-run developments of the Italian economy, and as such it adopts econometric methods that allow the researcher to quantify the structural long-run parameters. The equation are estimated over a large sample of annual data (1960-2013), using cointegration techniques that take into account the possible presence of structural breaks in the model parameters. The model overall tracking performance is good. We perform some standard policy experiments in order to show the model’s response to usual shocks: an increase in public expenditure, an exchange rate devaluation, a slowdown in world demand, and an increase in oil prices. The shocks are evaluated by ex post simulation and their impact tracked over a five-year span. The dynamic multipliers appear to be consistent with the economic intuition.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.asimmetrie.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/AISWP201405.pdf
File Function: Second version, 2014
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy) in its series a/ Working Papers Series with number 1405.

as
in new window

Length: 160 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2014
Handle: RePEc:ais:wpaper:1405
Contact details of provider: Postal:
via Filippo Marchetti 19, I-00199 Roma, Italy

Web page: http://www.asimmetrie.org
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
  2. Yi Wu, 2008. "Growth, Expansion of Markets, and Income Elasticities in World Trade," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 654-671, 09.
  3. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  4. Francesco Pastore, 2010. "Assessing the impact of incomes policy: the Italian experience," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(7), pages 793-817, October.
  5. Graham, John W., 1989. "International differences in saving rates and the life cycle hypothesis : Reply and further evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1499-1507, September.
  6. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
  7. Antonio Acconcia & Giancarlo Corsetti & Saverio Simonelli, 2014. "Mafia and Public Spending: Evidence on the Fiscal Multiplier from a Quasi-experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2185-2209, July.
  8. Rasmus Kattai, 2005. "EMMA - A Quarterly Model of the Estonian Economy," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2005-12, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Dec 2005.
  9. BEFFY Pierre-Olivier & BONNET Xavier & DARRACQ-PARRIES Matthieu & MONFORT Brieuc, "undated". "MZE: A Small Macro-model for the Euro Area," EcoMod2003 330700011, EcoMod.
  10. Georg Weizsacker, 2010. "Do We Follow Others When We Should? A Simple Test of Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2340-2360, December.
  11. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "Comparing empirical models of the euro economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 735-758, September.
  12. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2014. "Unpredictability in economic analysis, econometric modeling and forecasting," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 186-195.
  13. Bagnai, Alberto & Carlucci, Francesco, 2003. "An aggregate model for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 623-649, May.
  14. Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "The Fall and Rise of Keynesian Economics," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 64(187), pages 278-294, December.
  15. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  16. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
  17. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Chui, Michael K F, 1999. "Estimating Income and Price Elasticities of Trade in a Cointegration Framework," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 254-264, May.
  18. Schiattarella Roberto & Tancioni Massimiliano & Bagnai Alberto & Carlucci Francesco, 2006. "FGB-STEP: un modello di simulazione per l'analisi del mercato del lavoro," Economia & lavoro, Carocci editore, issue 3, pages 123-123.
  19. Mick Silver, 2007. "Do Unit Value Export, Import, and Terms of Trade Indices Represent or Misrepresent Price Indices?," IMF Working Papers 07/121, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Stefano Chiarlone, 2000. "Import Demand with Product Differentiation: Disaggregated Estimation of Italian Sectoral Elasticities," KITeS Working Papers 113, KITeS, Centre for Knowledge, Internationalization and Technology Studies, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy, revised Jul 2000.
  21. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
  22. Dreger, Christian & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-13.
  23. Angelini, Elena & D’Agostino, Antonello & McAdam, Peter, 2006. "The Italian block of the ESCB multi-country model," Working Paper Series 0660, European Central Bank.
  24. Alberto Bagnai, 2010. "Structural changes, cointegration and the empirics of Thirlwall's law," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(10), pages 1315-1329.
  25. Alan P. Kirman, 1992. "Whom or What Does the Representative Individual Represent?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 117-136, Spring.
  26. Leland Crane & Meredith A. Crowley & Saad Quayyum, 2007. "Understanding the evolution of trade deficits: trade elasticities of industrialized countries," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q IV, pages 2-17.
  27. Annetta Maria Binotti & Enrico Ghiani, 2008. "At the Origins of the NAIRU : Short-Term Economic Policy and the Development of the First Italian Macroeconometric Models," History of Economic Ideas, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 16(1-2), pages 103-132.
  28. Alberto Bagnai, 2013. "Unhappy families are all alike: Minskyan cycles, Kaldorian growth, and the Eurozone peripheral crises," a/ Working Papers Series 1301, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
  29. Kaldor, Nicholas, 1972. "The Irrelevance of Equilibrium Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(328), pages 1237-1255, December.
  30. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  31. Bart Hertveldt & Igor Lebrun, 2003. "Working Paper 06-03 - MODTRIM II : A quarterly model for the Belgian economy," Working Papers 0306, Federal Planning Bureau, Belgium.
  32. Buiter, Willem H, 1980. "The Macroeconomics of Dr. Pangloss: A Critical Survey of the New Classical Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(357), pages 34-50, March.
  33. Pierre Perron, 2005. "Dealing with Structural Breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  34. Jonathan Perraton & Paul Turner, 1999. "Estimates of industrial country export and import demand functions: implications for 'Thirlwall's Law'," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(11), pages 723-727.
  35. John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
  36. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The Impact of an Exchange Rate Realignment on the Italian Trade Balance: Euro vs. National Currency," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot GmbH, Berlin, vol. 60(4), pages 273-291.
  37. U G O Panizza, 2013. "The Origins and Resolution of Debt Crises: It Is Not Always Fiscal!," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 55(3), pages 431-453, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ais:wpaper:1405. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Alberto Bagnai)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.