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The tax-spend nexus in Nigeria: Evidence from Nonlinear Causality

  • Olalekan Bashir Aworinde

    ()

    (Tai Solarin University of Education, Nigeria & University of Bath, UK.)

The study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between the tax-spend nexus in Nigeria for the periods 1961-1992, 1993-2012 and1961-2012. Employing a nonparametric causality test of Diks and Panchenko (2006) as well as the parametric causality test using the VAR model, results show that there is evidence of uni-directional linear causality from government revenue to government expenditure in the first period and uni-directional nonlinear causality from government revenue to government expenditure in the second and third periods. However, the nonlinear causal relation evidence that government revenue Granger cause government expenditure disappears after the VAR filtering. The policy implication of this result is that government should intensify efforts to improve her revenue accompanied with appropriate fiscal expenditure reforms.

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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 33 (2013)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 3117-3130

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00775
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  1. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
  2. Schwert, G William, 1989. "Tests for Unit Roots: A Monte Carlo Investigation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 147-59, April.
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  4. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  5. Edward Ghartey, 2010. "Cointegration and Causal Relationship between Taxes and Spending for Kenya, Nigeria and South Africa," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 267-282.
  6. Bradley T. Ewing & James E. Payne & Mark A. Thompson & Omar M. Al-Zoubi, 2006. "Government Expenditures and Revenues: Evidence from Asymmetric Modeling," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 190–200, July.
  7. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-93, January.
  8. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
  9. Bekiros, S. & Diks, C.G.H., 2007. "The Relationship between Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices: Cointegration, Linear and Nonlinear Causality," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  10. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D, 1994. " Testing for Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality in the Stock Price-Volume Relation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1639-64, December.
  11. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
  12. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2013. "Revenue and expenditure nexus: A case study of ECOWAS," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, vol. 7, pages 1-27.
  13. Meltzer, Allan H & Richard, Scott F, 1981. "A Rational Theory of the Size of Government," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 914-27, October.
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