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Asymmetries in the revenue-expenditure nexus: New evidence from South Africa

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  • Phiri, Andrew

Abstract

In this study, we relax the conventional assumption of a linear cointegration relationship in the revenue-expenditure nexus by examining asymmetric equilibrium effects in the South African fiscal budget using quarterly data collected between 1960:Q1 and 2016:Q2. Our mode of empirical investigation is the MTAR model supplemented with a TEC component. Our estimation results can be summarized into three main empirical findings. Firstly, we find that the long-run elasticity between revenue and expenditure is less-than-unity which implies that the fiscal budget is weakly unsustainable. Secondly we find that positive ‘shocks’ to the fiscal budget are eradicated fairly quickly which means that fiscal authorities must implement their policies in a continuous, on-going fashion over the long run. Lastly, we observe bi-directional causality between revenues and expenditures which offers support in favour of the fiscal synchronization hypothesis. This last result implies that fiscal authorities should amend fiscal imbalances through increased consolidation between revenue collection and expenditure allocation.

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  • Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Asymmetries in the revenue-expenditure nexus: New evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 75224, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:75224
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    Cited by:

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    3. Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "How sustainable are fiscal budgets in the Kingdom of Swaziland?," MPRA Paper 85149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Kambale Kavase & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Are fiscal budgets sustainable in South Africa? Evidence from provincial level data," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center, vol. 14(2), pages 415-423, April.
    5. Krasnopeeva, Natalia, 2023. "Revenues and expenditures of Russian regional budgets: Granger causality analysis," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 70, pages 5-33.
    6. Ibrahim, Taofik, 2018. "Government expenditure-revenue nexus reconsidered for Nigeria: Does structural break matter?," MPRA Paper 86220, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 21 Oct 2017.
    7. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu & Izabella Szakálné Kanó, 2024. "Primary surplus dynamics and fiscal sustainability in sub-saharan African countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 499-519, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Revenue; Expenditure; Fiscal budget sustainability; Threshold cointegration; MTAR; Causality; South Africa.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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