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Nonlinearities in Wagner's law: Further evidence from South Africa

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  • Phiri, Andrew

Abstract

Recently, it has being speculated that the linear relationship between government expenditure and economic growth may be misspecified. In our study, we contribute to the literature by investigating a nonlinear expenditure-growth relationship for South Africa by applying threshold cointegration analysis to six variations of Wagner’s law. Indeed, our empirical analysis reveal a nonlinear relationship between the time series for four out of the six versions of Wagner’s law thus providing strong evidence of existing nonlinearities for the case of South Africa. We further find uni-directional causality running from government spending to output productivity with positive increases in government expenditure leading to improved GDP levels hence lending support to the Keynesian hypothesis. And yet, we also find that negative deviations from the steady-state are eradicated slower than positive ones hence implying that increases in government spending would be offset by negative shocks to the macroeconomy over the long-run. This implies that excessive spending by South African government is not a panacea in overcoming the adverse effects of the recent global recession on the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinearities in Wagner's law: Further evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 71702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:71702
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(3), pages 15-38.
    2. Fourie, Justin & Pretorius, Theuns & Harvey, Rhett & Henrico, Van Niekerk & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 74671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Luxolo Malangeni & Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Education and economic growth in post-Apartheid South Africa," Working Papers 1716, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University, revised Dec 2017.
    4. A. Phiri, 2019. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: new evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1515-1547, May.
    5. Vuyokazi Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Is There Hysteresis in South African Unemployment? Evidence from the Post-Recessionary Period," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 15(3), pages 365-387, JUNE.
    6. Malangeni, Luxolo & Phiri, Andrew, 2017. "Education and economic growth in post-Apartheid South Africa: An ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 83017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Xolisa Vayi & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "A Sequential Panel Selection Approach to Cointegration Analysis: An Application to Wagner’s Law for South African Provincial Data," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 8(1), pages 25-39, June.
    8. Xolisa Vayi & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "A sequential panel selection approach to cointegration analysis: An application to Wagner’s law for South Africa," Working Papers 1831, Department of Economics, Nelson Mandela University.
    9. Luxolo Malangeni & Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Education and Economic Growth in Post-apartheid South Africa: An Autoregressive Distributive Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(2), pages 101-107.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wagner’s law; South Africa; nonlinear; cointegration; error correction model; causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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