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Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis

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  • Pelin Varol Iyidogan
  • Taner Turan

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the government size and economic growth by using threshold regression model and quarterly data over the period 1998:1-2015:1 for Turkey. Our results provide a strong evidence for the existence of a non-linear relationship. The estimated threshold levels, as a percentage of GDP, are 16.5 for the government total expenditures, 12.6 for consumption expenditures and 3.9 for investment expenditures. We find that an increase in the government size leads to a significant rise (decline) in economic growth rate when the government size is below (above) the threshold level, confirming the predictions of Armey curve. Our findings have a clear policy implication: since the realized government consumption and total expenditures are well above the estimated threshold levels, a reduction in the government size would boost the growth rate.

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  • Pelin Varol Iyidogan & Taner Turan, 2017. "Government Size and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Threshold Regression Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2017(2), pages 142-154.
    • Handle: RePEc:prg:jnlpep:v:2017:y:2017:i:2:id:600:p:142-154
    DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.600
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    4. Coayla, Edelina, 2021. "The Optimal Size of Government and the Armey Curve: A Review of Empirical Evidence," Asian Journal of Applied Economics, Kasetsart University, Center for Applied Economics Research, vol. 28(1).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; government size; non-linearity; threshold estimations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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