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Do budget deficits crowd out private investment? An analysis of the South African economy

Author

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  • Rumbidzai Aime Biza
  • Forget Mingiri Kapingura
  • Asrat Tsegaye

Abstract

South Africa has been experiencing unprecedented budget deficits since the 1960s, in light of this, the study investigates whether budget deficits crowd out or crowd in private investment in South Africa, using quarterly data covering the period 1994 to 2009. An empirical model linking private investment to its theoretical variables is specified and used to assess the quantitative effects of budget deficits on private investment. The study augments the cointegration and vector auto-regression (VAR) analysis with impulse response and variance decomposition analyses to provide robust long run and short run dynamic effects on private investment. The empirical results revealed that there is a long-term relationship between private investment and its determinants specified in the model. This implies that budget deficits significantly crowds out private investment in the long-run. These results corroborate the theoretical predictions and are also supported by previous studies.

Suggested Citation

  • Rumbidzai Aime Biza & Forget Mingiri Kapingura & Asrat Tsegaye, 2015. "Do budget deficits crowd out private investment? An analysis of the South African economy," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 8(1), pages 52-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijepee:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:52-76
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Phiri, 2016. "The Growth Trade-off between Direct and Indirect Taxes in South Africa: Evidence from a STR Model," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 14(3 (Fall)), pages 233-250.
    2. Andrew Phiri, 2018. "Nonlinear Relationship between Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(3), pages 15-38.
    3. Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Does Military Spending Nonlinearly Affect Economic Growth in South Africa?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 474-487, June.
    4. Alani, Jimmy, 2020. "Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint: Debts and Economic Growth in Ethiopia, 1990–2018," MPRA Paper 103180, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2020.
    5. Fourie, Justin & Pretorius, Theuns & Harvey, Rhett & Henrico, Van Niekerk & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear relationship between exchange rate volatility and economic growth: A South African perspective," MPRA Paper 74671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Andrew Phiri, 2017. "Nonlinearities in Wagner's law: further evidence from South Africa," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 9(3), pages 231-249.
    7. Eslon Ngeendepi & Andrew Phiri, 2021. "Do FDI and Public Investment Crowd in/out Domestic Private Investment in the SADC Region?," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 19(1 (Spring), pages 3-25.
    8. Thobeka Ncanywa & Marius Mamokgaetji Masoga, 2018. "Can public debt stimulate public investment and economic growth in South Africa?," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1516483-151, January.
    9. Enock Mwakalila, 2020. "Crowding Out of Private Sector in Tanzania: Government Expenditure, Domestic Borrowing, and Lending Rates," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 123-135, May.
    10. Khoza, Keorapetse & Thebe, Relebogile & Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Nonlinear impact of inflation on economic growth in South Africa: A smooth transition regression (STR) analysis," MPRA Paper 73840, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Roseline Tapuwa Karambakuwa & Ronney Ncwadi & Andrew Phiri, 2020. "The human capital–economic growth nexus in SSA countries: what can strengthen the relationship?," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(9), pages 1143-1159, July.
    12. Besso, Christophe Raoul, 2018. "Financement Des Deficits Publics Et Comportement Du Secteur Financier En Zone Cemac [Financing Fiscal deficit and private sector behavior in CEMAC countries]," MPRA Paper 95365, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2014. "Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Analyzing the Effects of Government Spending on Private Investment in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 61(6), pages 617-630, December.
    14. Kagiso Molefe & Andrew Maredza, 2017. "Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(2), pages 215-223.

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