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Are fiscal budgets sustainable in South Africa? Evidence from provincial level data

Author

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  • Kavase, Kambale
  • Phiri, Andrew

Abstract

This study uses the nonlinear autoregressive distributive lag (N-ARDL) model to investigate the expenditure-revenue relationship for all nine South African provinces using annual data spanning from 2000 to 2016. Whereas other cointegration models can only depict whether budgets are sustainable or not, the N-ARDL model presents features which further enable us to predict a course of action which individual provincial governments can take towards attaining higher levels of budgetary sustainability in both the short and the long-run. Ultimately, our empirical study demonstrates that the ‘one rule fit all’ strategy as suggested by previous studies may not be an appropriate approach seeing that provincial governments have differing requirements for attaining improved levels of budget sustainability

Suggested Citation

  • Kavase, Kambale & Phiri, Andrew, 2018. "Are fiscal budgets sustainable in South Africa? Evidence from provincial level data," Business and Economic Horizons (BEH), Prague Development Center (PRADEC), vol. 14(2), February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pdcbeh:285187
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.285187
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    Cited by:

    1. Oyeyinka OMOSHORO-JONES, 2020. "Investigating The Government Revenue–Expenditure Nexus: Empirical Evidence For The Free State Province In A Multivariate Model," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 138-156.
    2. Gabriel Temesgen Woldu & Izabella Szakálné Kanó, 2024. "Primary surplus dynamics and fiscal sustainability in sub-saharan African countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 499-519, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H72 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Budget and Expenditures

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