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Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain

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  • Trachanas, Emmanouil
  • Katrakilidis, Constantinos

Abstract

This article attempts to re-evaluate the sustainability of the fiscal deficit as well as the long-run macroeconomic relationship between government spending and revenues for three South-European economies under financial market pressure and insolvency; Italy, Greece and Spain. The empirical analysis uses annual data from 1970 to 2010 and employs various cointegration techniques to account for possible linear and nonlinear effects in fiscal policy actions. The evidence for all three countries suggests that, allowing for structural break, (i) the fiscal deficits are weakly sustainable in the long-run, (ii) the spend-and-tax hypothesis is supported and (iii) the budgetary adjustment process is asymmetric in Italy and Spain.

Suggested Citation

  • Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:35:y:2013:i:5:p:730-749
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.03.013
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    Cited by:

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    2. Cosimo Magazzino & Francesco Forte & Lorenzo Giolli, 2022. "On the Italian public accounts' sustainability: A wavelet approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 943-952, January.
    3. Triches, Divanildo & Sleimann Bertussi, Luis Antônio, 2017. "Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
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    6. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2013. "The debt trap: a two-compartment train wreck," MPRA Paper 47578, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    8. Ahmad, Ahmad Hassan & Aworinde, Olalekan Bashir, 2016. "The role of structural breaks, nonlinearity and asymmetric adjustments in African bilateral real exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 144-159.
    9. Sebastian Hauptmeier & A. Jesús Sánchez Fuentes & Ludger Schuknecht, 2015. "Spending Dynamics in Euro Area Countries: Composition and Determinants," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 119-138, December.
    10. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    11. Magazzino, Cosimo & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan, 2022. "The Italian fiscal sustainability in a long-run perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    12. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "Government Expenditures and Revenues in Italy in a Long-run Perspective," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 17(2), pages 361-375, June.
    13. Tronzano, Marco, 2017. "Testing Fiscal Sustainability In The Transition Economies Of Eastern Europe: The Case Of Poland (1999-2015)," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 70(1), pages 103-132.
    14. Castillo-Manzano, José I. & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pozo-Barajas, Rafael, 2016. "An econometric evaluation of the management of large-scale transport infrastructure in Spain during the great recession: Lessons for infrastructure bubbles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 302-313.
    15. Buiatti, Cesare & Carmeci, Gaetano & Mauro, Luciano, 2014. "The origins of the public debt of Italy: Geographically dispersed interests?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 43-62.
    16. Johann Bröthaler & Michael Getzner, 2015. "The Tax-Spend Debate and Budgetary Policy in Austria," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 21(3), pages 299-315, August.
    17. Cosimo Magazzino & Mihai Mutascu, 2019. "A wavelet analysis of Italian fiscal sustainability," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.
    18. A. Ahmad & Su-ling Fanelli, 2014. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro-Zone: Is There A Role for Euro-Bonds?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(3), pages 291-303, September.
    19. Bystrov, Victor & Mackiewicz, Michał, 2020. "Recurrent explosive public debts and the long-run fiscal sustainability," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 437-450.
    20. Syed Ali Raza & Syed Zaki Hassan & Arshian Sharif, 2019. "Asymmetric Relationship Between Government Revenues and Expenditures in a Developing Economy: Evidence from a Non-linear Model," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 20(5), pages 1179-1195, October.
    21. Artzrouni, Marc & Tramontana, Fabio, 2014. "The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 241-256.
    22. Ngan Tran, 2019. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal balance on monetary variables: evidence from large emerging economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1045-1076, September.
    23. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    24. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2015. "The causal relationship between debt and growth in EMU countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 974-989.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Budget deficit; Sustainability; Revenues; Expenditures; Structural breaks; Threshold cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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