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On the Sustainability of Government Deficits: Some Long-Term Evidence for Spain, 1850–2000

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio
  • Carmen Díaz-Roldán
  • Vicente Esteve

Abstract

We provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850–2000, from the estimation of a cointegration relationship between government expenditures and revenues derived from the intertemporal budget constraint. The longer than usual span of the data allows us to obtain more robust results on the fulfilment of the intertemporal budget constraint than most of the previous analyses. Two additional robustness checks are provided. First, we investigate the possibility of structural changes occurring along the period analyzed, using the new approach of Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) to testing for multiple structural changes in cointegrated regression models. Second, we investigate whether the behaviour of fiscal authorities has been non-linear, by means of the procedure of Hansen and Seo (2002) based on a threshold cointegration model. Our results show that (i) the government deficit has been strongly sustainable in the long run, (ii) no evidence is found on any significant structural break throughout the whole period, and (iii) fiscal sustainability has been attained due to the non-linear behaviour of fiscal authorities, which have only acted on the budget deficit when it has exceeded around 4.5% of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2010. "On the Sustainability of Government Deficits: Some Long-Term Evidence for Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 263-281, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:recsxx:v:13:y:2010:i:2:p:263-281
    DOI: 10.1016/S1514-0326(10)60012-8
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    Cited by:

    1. Magazzino, Cosimo & Mutascu, Mihai Ioan, 2022. "The Italian fiscal sustainability in a long-run perspective," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    2. Sergey Zhavoronkov & Konstantin Yanovskiy & Kirill Rodionov, 2015. "Political Factors of the Cuts and Surges in Government Spending: The Effects on Old Market Democracies and Post-Communist Countries," Working Papers 146, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, revised 2015.
    3. Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "Explosive U.S. budget deficit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1076-1080.
    4. N. Bilkic & B. Carreras Painter & T. Gries, 2013. "Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-45, March.
    5. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    6. Nimai Das, 2015. "Subnational level fiscal health in India: stability and sustainability implications," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 71-91, February.
    7. Stefano Battilossi & Regina Escario & James Foreman-Peck, 2013. "Fiscal policy response to cycles under two regimes: Spain 1950–1998," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 7(3), pages 267-294, September.
    8. Golpe, Antonio A. & Sánchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Vides, José Carlos, 2023. "Fiscal sustainability, monetary policy and economic growth in the Euro Area: In search of the ultimate causal path," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1026-1045.
    9. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar, 2012. "The balance-of-payments constraint on economic growth in a long-term perspective: Spain, 1850–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 105-117.
    10. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    11. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    12. Nimai Das, 2013. "Subnational-level Fiscal Health: Stability and Sustainability Implications for Kerala, Punjab, and West Bengal," Working Papers id:5589, eSocialSciences.
    13. Akram, Vaseem & Rath, Badri Narayan, 2020. "What do we know about fiscal sustainability across Indian states?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 307-321.
    14. Yu Shi & Qing Li & Robert Bland, 2023. "Fiscal self‐sufficiency, debt policy, and long‐term sustainability in China's emerging local bond market," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 309-322, October.
    15. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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