IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/padxxx/v43y2023i4p309-322.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fiscal self‐sufficiency, debt policy, and long‐term sustainability in China's emerging local bond market

Author

Listed:
  • Yu Shi
  • Qing Li
  • Robert Bland

Abstract

Using panel data from 155 Chinese provincial‐level governments between 2015 and 2020, this study develops fiscal indicators to measure the sustainability of China's bond market given its institutional context. With these indicators, the research empirically explores the effect of fiscal institutions such as centrally‐imposed debt limits on local governments' debt sustainability. It also investigates the capacity of local governments for self‐sufficiency to meet their debt obligations and maintain long‐term sustainability. We find that debt limits have promoted local debt sustainability while local fiscal self‐sufficiency has had little effect on debt sustainability in the long‐term. The findings provide public finance and policy scholars with an understanding of the effectiveness of fiscal institutions such as debt limits imposed by China's central government.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu Shi & Qing Li & Robert Bland, 2023. "Fiscal self‐sufficiency, debt policy, and long‐term sustainability in China's emerging local bond market," Public Administration & Development, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(4), pages 309-322, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:padxxx:v:43:y:2023:i:4:p:309-322
    DOI: 10.1002/pad.2025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1002/pad.2025
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1002/pad.2025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Besley & Anne Case, 2003. "Political Institutions and Policy Choices: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(1), pages 7-73, March.
    2. Besancenot, Damien & Huynh, Kim & Vranceanu, Radu, 2004. "Default on sustainable public debt: illiquidity suspect convicted," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 205-211, February.
    3. Amiel, Lindsay & Deller, Steven & Stallmann, Judith, 2009. "The Construction of a Tax and Expenditure Limitation Index for the US," Staff Paper Series 536, University of Wisconsin, Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    4. Rebecca Hendrick & Jared Crawford, 2014. "Municipal Fiscal Policy Space and Fiscal Structure: Tools for Managing Spending Volatility," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(3), pages 24-50, September.
    5. Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publication 61.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    6. Bom, Pedro R.D. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2014. "Public infrastructure investment, output dynamics, and balanced budget fiscal rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 334-354.
    7. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J. & McMillen, Daniel P., 2005. "Are Property Tax Limitations More Binding Over Time?," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 58(2), pages 215-225, June.
    8. Li, Hongbin & Zhou, Li-An, 2005. "Political turnover and economic performance: the incentive role of personnel control in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(9-10), pages 1743-1762, September.
    9. Michael A. Ellis & D. Eric Schansberg, 1999. "The Determinants of State Government Debt Financing," Public Finance Review, , vol. 27(6), pages 571-587, November.
    10. Dye, Richard F. & McGuire, Therese J., 1997. "The effect of property tax limitation measures on local government fiscal behavior," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 469-487, December.
    11. Shadbegian, Ronald J., 1999. "The Effect of Tax and Expenditure Limitations on the Revenue Structure of Local Government, 1962-87," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(2), pages 221-238, June.
    12. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2010. "On the Sustainability of Government Deficits: Some Long-Term Evidence for Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 263-281, November.
    13. Meloche, Jean-Philippe & Vaillancourt, Francois & Yilmaz, Serdar, 2004. "Decentralization or fiscal autonomy ? What does really matter ? effects on growth and public sector size in European transition countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3254, The World Bank.
    14. David Bartolini & Raffaella Santolini, 2013. "Fiscal autonomy and quality of governance in OECD countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 706-713.
    15. Wolman, Harold, 1983. "Understanding Local Government Responses to Fiscal Pressure: a Cross National Analysis," Journal of Public Policy, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 245-263, August.
    16. Mrs. Nina Budina & Ms. Andrea Schaechter & Miss Anke Weber & Mr. Tidiane Kinda, 2012. "Fiscal Rules in Response to the Crisis: Toward the "Next-Generation" Rules: A New Dataset," IMF Working Papers 2012/187, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Ronald J. Shadbegian, 1998. "Do Tax and Expenditure Limitations Affect Local Government Budgets? Evidence From Panel Data," Public Finance Review, , vol. 26(2), pages 118-136, March.
    18. Shadbegian, Ronald J., 1999. "The Effect of Tax and Expenditure Limitations on the Revenue Structure of Local Government, 1962-87," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 2), pages 221-38, June.
    19. Casper van Ewijk & Nick Draper & Harry ter Rele & Ed Westerhout, 2006. "Ageing and the sustainability of Dutch public finances," CPB Special Publication 61, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Poterba, James M. & von Hagen, Jurgen (ed.), 1999. "Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226676234, March.
    21. James M. Poterba & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote99-1, June.
    22. Sharp, Elaine B., 1986. "The Politics and Economics of the New City Debt," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1271-1288, December.
    23. Richard Elling & Kelly Krawczyk & Jered Carr, 2014. "What Should We Do? Public Attitudes about How Local Government Officials Should Confront Fiscal Stress," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(3), pages 380-402, May.
    24. James M. Poterba & Jürgen von Hagen, 1999. "Introduction to "Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance"," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Institutions and Fiscal Performance, pages 1-12, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Bradbury, Katharine L. & Mayer, Christopher J. & Case, Karl E., 2001. "Property tax limits, local fiscal behavior, and property values: evidence from Massachusetts under Proposition," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 287-311, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Justina A.V. Fischer, 2005. "Do Institutions of Direct Democracy Tame the Leviathan? Swiss Evidence on the Structure of Expenditure for Public Education," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2005 2005-22, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
    2. Steven Deller & Judith I. Stallmann & Lindsay Amiel, 2012. "The Impact of State and Local Tax and Expenditure Limitations on State Economic Growth," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 56-84, March.
    3. Lars P. Feld & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2004. "Do Large Cabinets Favor Large Governments? Evidence from Swiss Sub-federal Jurisdictions," Marburg Working Papers on Economics 200421, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    4. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    5. Michele Salvi & Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lukas Schmid, 2020. "Fiscal Rules Cause Lower Debt: Evidence from Switzerland’s Federal Debt Containment Rule," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 605-642, November.
    6. Asatryan, Zareh & Castellón, César & Stratmann, Thomas, 2018. "Balanced budget rules and fiscal outcomes: Evidence from historical constitutions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 105-119.
    7. Benno Torgler & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2005. "Trust and Fiscal Performance: A Panel Analysis with Swiss Data," Working Papers 2005.61, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    8. Badinger, Harald & Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2015. "Measurement of fiscal rules: Introducing the application of partially ordered set (POSET) theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 108-123.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/jpcu0knbl80rpibin9slrlrlb is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Gebhard Kirchgassner, 2002. "The effects of fiscal institutions on public finance: a survey of the empirical evidence," Chapters, in: Stanley L. Winer & Hirofumi Shibata (ed.), Political Economy and Public Finance, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Pengju Zhang, 2018. "The unintended impact of tax and expenditure limitations on the use of special districts: the politics of circumvention," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-50, February.
    12. Hasan Metin, 2017. "The Effect of Organizational Structure and Ngo-Ngo Relationships on Sustainability in NGOs," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, ejes_v3_i.
    13. Schaltegger, Christoph A. & Feld, Lars P., 2009. "Do large cabinets favor large governments? Evidence on the fiscal commons problem for Swiss Cantons," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 35-47, February.
    14. Heiner Felix Mikosch & Silke Übelmesser, 2007. "Staatsverschuldungsunterschiede im internationalen Vergleich und Schlussfolgerungen für Deutschland," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 8(4), pages 309-334, November.
    15. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lars P. Feld, 2008. "Do Large Cabinets Favor Large Governments? Evidence on Institutional Restraints on the Fiscal Commons Problem for Swiss Cantons," CREMA Working Paper Series 2008-10, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    16. Grigoli, Francesco & Mills, Zachary & Verhoeven, Marijn & Vlaicu, Razvan, 2012. "MTEFs and fiscal performance: panel data evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6186, The World Bank.
    17. Nalitra Thaiprasert & Dagney Faulk & Michael J. Hicks, 2013. "A Regional Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Property Tax Rate Caps and a Sales Tax Rate Increase in Indiana," Public Finance Review, , vol. 41(4), pages 446-472, July.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/jpcu0knbl80rpibin9slrlrlb is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Gladys A. A. Nabieu & Godfred A. Bokpin & Achampong K. Osei & Patrick O. Asuming, 2021. "The effects of fiscal governance on fiscal performance in Sub‐Saharan Africa," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5746-5761, October.
    20. Ignacio Ortiz Betancourt, 2017. "An Exploratory Analysis on Entrepreneurial Culture and Financial Education Between Students of the Veracruzana University, Veracruz Region," European Journal of Economics and Business Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 3, ejes_v3_i.
    21. Qiuxia Yang, 2020. "Fiscal Transparency and Public Service Quality Association: Evidence from 12 Coastal Provinces and Cities of China," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    22. Michał Mackiewicz, 2006. "Przyczyny deficytu finansów publicznych w świetle nowej ekonomii politycznej," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 1-22.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:padxxx:v:43:y:2023:i:4:p:309-322. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0271-2075 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.