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Fiscal Rules Cause Lower Debt: Evidence from Switzerland’s Federal Debt Containment Rule

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  • Michele Salvi
  • Christoph A. Schaltegger
  • Lukas Schmid

Abstract

This paper studies the effect of the Swiss federal debt containment rule on public debt. Using the synthetic control method, we provide evidence that the introduction of the federal rule in 2003 has reduced public debt ratio in Switzerland by 2.5 percentage points on average until 2010. By exploiting possible mechanisms, we find no evidence that the reduction in debt ratio was driven by a debt relocation to sub‐government levels or cutbacks in investment expenditure. On one hand, we argue that the positive impact of the fiscal rule is based on its design features, namely its precise but cyclically adjusted target, the comprehensive scope to prevent budget loopholes, and the strict sanction mechanism. On the other hand, we also discuss the generalizability of our findings to other countries and contend that its direct democratic authorization has contributed to its political enforcement and viability.

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  • Michele Salvi & Christoph A. Schaltegger & Lukas Schmid, 2020. "Fiscal Rules Cause Lower Debt: Evidence from Switzerland’s Federal Debt Containment Rule," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 605-642, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:kyklos:v:73:y:2020:i:4:p:605-642
    DOI: 10.1111/kykl.12251
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    Cited by:

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    2. Brändle, Thomas & Elsener, Marc, 2023. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey on recent evidence," Working papers 2023/07, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
    3. Thomas Brändle & Marc Elsener, 2024. "Do fiscal rules matter? A survey of recent evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 160(1), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Potrafke Niklas & Schaltegger Christoph A., 2022. "Fiscal Rules: Anchors of Stability," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 59-62, June.
    5. Niklas Potrafke, 2023. "The Economic Consequences of Fiscal Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 10765, CESifo.
    6. Ludger Schuknecht & Christoph A. Schaltegger & Michele Salvi & Jan Schnellenbach & Thomas Lenk & Christian Bender & Mario Hesse & Gert G. Wagner & Stefan Korioth & Klaus Gründler & Philipp Heil & Nikl, 2021. "Zankapfel Schuldenbremse: Bewährtes Instrument auch in Krisenzeiten?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 74(04), pages 03-30, April.
    7. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Bambe, Bao-We-Wal & Combes, Jean-Louis & Edoh, Eyah Denise, 2024. "Original sin: Fiscal rules and government debt in foreign currency in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Herrero-Alcalde, Ana & Martín-Román, Javier & Tránchez-Martín, José Manuel & Moral-Arce, Ignacio, 2024. "Fiscal rules to the test: The impact of the Spanish expenditure rule," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    9. Martin Werding & Klaus Gründler & Benjamin Läpple & Robert Lehmann & Martin Mosler & Niklas Potrafke, 2020. "Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen: Spielt sie noch eine Rolle?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(09), pages 53-58, September.
    10. Sebastian Blesse & Florian Dorn & Max Lay, 2023. "Do Fiscal Rules Undermine Public Investments? A Review of Empirical Evidence," ifo Working Paper Series 393, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    11. Kovács, Olivér, 2023. "Fiskális politika az öröklétnek - államadósság: ördög vagy messiás?* Olivier Blanchard: Fiscal Policy Under Low Interest Rates. MIT Press, 2023, 192 o [Fiscal policy for eternity - public dept: dev," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(1), pages 103-110.
    12. Philipp Weber & Laura A. Zell & Lars P. Feld & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2024. "Functionality of Fiscal Rules in a Low Interest Rate Environment – New Empirical Results for Swiss Cantons," CESifo Working Paper Series 11351, CESifo.
    13. Sebastian Blesse & Florian Dorn & Max Lay, 2023. "Schwächen Fiskalregeln öffentliche Investitionen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 76(06), pages 22-28, June.
    14. Michele Salvi & Christoph A. Schaltegger, 2023. "Tax more or spend less? Historical evidence from Switzerland’s federal budget plans," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 678-705, June.

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