The debt trap: a two-compartment train wreck
We aim to shed light on the debate among policy-makers trying to find prescriptions that will take troubled economies out of their debt trap. We do this with a highly stylized two-compartment dynamic model consisting of the stocks of money in Government and Society. The dynamics of the system are described by a simple four-parameter linear system of two differential equations. The solutions are investigated in closed form and provide precisely quantified "escape conditions" from the debt trap: receipts must be slightly larger than outlays and there must be sufficient annual inflows of funds into the system. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The model is used to extrapolate the two stocks beyond 2012 with three escape scenarios which shed light on monetary flows needed to take the U.S. economy out of its debt trap.
|Date of creation:||13 Jun 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Komlos, John & Artzrouni, Marc, 1990.
"Mathematical Investigations of the Escape from the Malthusian Trap,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
3427, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- John Komlos & Marc Artzrouni, . "Mathematical Investigations of the Escape from the Malthusian Trap," Articles by John Komlos 24, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
- L. Marattin & M. Marzo & P. Zagaglia, 2010.
"A welfare perspective on the fiscal-monetary policy mix: The role of alternative fiscal instruments,"
wp720, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Marattin, Luigi & Marzo, Massimiliano & Zagaglia, Paolo, 2011. "A welfare perspective on the fiscal–monetary policy mix: The role of alternative fiscal instruments," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 920-952.
- Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez-Fuentes, A. Jesus & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011.
"Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 597-617, July.
- Schuknecht, Ludger & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez Fuéntes, Jésus, 2011. "Towards Expenditure Rules and Fiscal Sanity in the Euro Area," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48693, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
- Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Sanchez Fuentes, Jesus & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2010. "Towards expenditure rules and fiscal sanity in the euro area," Working Paper Series 1266, European Central Bank.
- Annicchiarico, Barbara & Di Dio, Fabio & Felici, Francesco, 2013.
"Structural reforms and the potential effects on the Italian economy,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 88-109.
- Barbara Annicchiarico & Fabio Di Dio & Francesco Felici, 2012. "Structural Reforms and the Potential Effects on the Italian Economy," CEIS Research Paper 227, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 29 Mar 2012.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010.
"Growth in a Time of Debt,"
NBER Working Papers
15639, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fabio Tramontana & Mauro Gallegati, 2010.
"Economics as a compartmental system: a simple macroeconomic example,"
1011, University of Urbino Carlo Bo, Department of Economics, Society & Politics - Scientific Committee - L. Stefanini & G. Travaglini, revised 2010.
- Fabio Tramontana, 2010. "Economics as a compartmental system: a simple macroeconomic example," International Review of Economics, Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 57(4), pages 347-360, December.
- Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Yap, Su Fei, 2013. "The origins and evolution of policy modeling," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 170-182.
- Krugman, Paul, 2000. "How Complicated Does the Model Have to Be?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(4), pages 33-42, Winter.
- Saunoris, James W. & Payne, James E., 2010. "Tax more or spend less? Asymmetries in the UK revenue-expenditure nexus," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 478-487, July.
- Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2013.
"Does High Public Debt Consistently Stifle Economic Growth? A Critique of Reinhart and Rogo ff,"
wp322, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
- Thomas Herndon & Michael Ash & Robert Pollin, 2014. "Does high public debt consistently stifle economic growth? A critique of Reinhart and Rogoff," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 38(2), pages 257-279.
- Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2010. "Modern macroeconomic models as tools for economic policy," The Region, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue May, pages 5-21.
- Rossana Merola & Douglas Sutherland, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 3. Long-Run Projections and Fiscal Gap Calculations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 934, OECD Publishing.
- Salvatore, Dominick, 2010. "Growth or stagnation after recession for the U.S. and other large advanced economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 637-647, September.
- Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47578. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.