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Intertemporal solvency and breaks in the US deficit process: a maximum-likelihood cointegration approach

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  • Peter Liu
  • Evan Tanner

Abstract

Previous research has shown that the intertemporal solvency condition is equivalent to the cointegration of either (1) the interest-inclusive government spendings and tax revenue or (2) the interest-exclusive government spendings, tax revenue and government outstanding debt. This note examines the intertemporal solvency condition using a maximum likelihood cointegration test. Results show that the solvency condition for the US government is satisfied only if a break is included in the process.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Liu & Evan Tanner, 1995. "Intertemporal solvency and breaks in the US deficit process: a maximum-likelihood cointegration approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(7), pages 231-235.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:2:y:1995:i:7:p:231-235
    DOI: 10.1080/135048595357339
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    Cited by:

    1. Onel, Gulcan & Utkulu, Utku, 2006. "Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 669-682, July.
    2. Nicholas Apergis & Konstantinos Katrakilidis & Nicholas Tabakis, 2000. "Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 599-603.
    3. Mariusz Jarmuzek, 2005. "Are the EU new member states fiscally sustainable? An empirical analysis," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 51, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    4. Burret Heiko T. & Köhler Ekkehard A. & Feld Lars P., 2013. "Sustainability of Public Debt in Germany – Historical Considerations and Time Series Evidence," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 233(3), pages 291-335, June.
    5. Jyh-lin, Wu & Fountas, Stilianos & Show-lin, Chen, 1996. "Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in two industrial countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 193-198, August.
    6. António Afonso, 2005. "Fiscal Sustainability: The Unpleasant European Case," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 61(1), pages 19-44, March.
    7. Juan Carlos Vargas Berdugo, 2004. "Cuenta corriente y restricción presupuestaria intertemporal: un contraste de la viabilidad del financiamiento externo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 22(45), pages 58-78, June.
    8. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah, 2005. "Assessing The Mean Reversion Behavior Of Fiscal Policy: The Case Of Asian Countries," Macroeconomics 0504002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. repec:bdr:ensayo:v::y:2004:i:45:p:58-78 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Panagiotis Pantelidis & Emmanouil Trachanas & Athanasios L. Athanasenas & Constantinos Katrakilidis, 2009. "On the Dynamics of the Greek Twin Deficits: Empirical evidence over the period 1960 – 2007," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), International Hellenic University (IHU), Kavala Campus, Greece (formerly Eastern Macedonia and Thrace Institute of Technology - EMaTTech), vol. 2(2), pages 9-32, December.
    11. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.

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