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Cuenta corriente y restricción presupuestaria intertemporal: un contraste de la viabilidad del financiamiento externo

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  • JUAN CARLOS VARGAS BERDUGO

Abstract

Este artículo propone una especificación econométrica para contrastar la viabilidad del financiamiento externo, derivada del enfoque intertemporal de la cuenta corriente y del análisis de series de tiempo no estacionarias. Específicamente, discute una estrategia que permite superar la eventual inconsistencia del análisis de cointegración entre procesos I(1) en presencia de multicointegración. La metodología propuesta supera trabajos precedentes (Leachman y Francis, 2000) en tanto relaja el supuesto de estacionariedad del balance comercial e incorpora la dinámica los activos externos netos a la discusión de la validez empírica de la restricción presupuestaria intertemporal.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Vargas Berdugo, 2004. "Cuenta corriente y restricción presupuestaria intertemporal: un contraste de la viabilidad del financiamiento externo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(45), pages 58-78.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:002246
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.4502
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    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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