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Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000

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  • Escario, Regina
  • Gadea, María Dolores
  • Sabaté, Marcela

Abstract

Spanish long-run fiscal sustainability is analysed by using the multicointegration methodology. It permits the estimation of dynamic equilibrium relationships between flow and stock variables, and is here adjusted to fit the recurrent use of monetization. The results reveal that seigniorage was essential in guaranteeing long-run government solvency, and thus, highlight the relevance for Spain of its loss of monetary independence when joining the EMU in 1998. After a prosperous decade the lesson from the current crisis emerges even clearer: being deprived of monetization, structural measures for fiscal consolidation should not be postponed any longer if sustainability is to be maintained.

Suggested Citation

  • Escario, Regina & Gadea, María Dolores & Sabaté, Marcela, 2012. "Multicointegration, seigniorage and fiscal sustainability. Spain 1857–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 270-283.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:34:y:2012:i:2:p:270-283
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2011.09.001
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    Cited by:

    1. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    3. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:3:a:66468 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "“The relationship between debt level and fiscal sustainability in OECD countries”," AQR Working Papers 201307, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2013.
    5. Ulrich Haskamp, 2014. "Was Spanish fiscal policy sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 273-286, May.
    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    7. Trachanas, Emmanouil & Katrakilidis, Constantinos, 2013. "Fiscal deficits under financial pressure and insolvency: Evidence for Italy, Greece and Spain," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 730-749.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal sustainability; Multicointegration; Seigniorage;

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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