IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zar/wpaper/dt2009-07.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government Solvency or just Pseudo-Sustainability? a Long-Run Multicointegration Approach for Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Regina Escario

    () (Applied Economics Department. University of Zaragoza)

  • María Dolores Gadea

    (Applied Economics Department. University of Zaragoza)

  • Marcela Sabaté

    (Applied Economics Department. University of Zaragoza)

Abstract

The concept of multicointegration allows to test the sustainability of public finances by assessing dynamic equilibrium relationships between flow and stock variables. This paper focus on the very long-run Spanish case, characterized by the more or less intensive use of monetization to offset the recurrent deficits. The results support that seigniorage allowed the governments to guarantee –even artificially– a pseudo-sustainability for their budgetary path. Besides, the possibility of there being a structural break during the period is also taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Regina Escario & María Dolores Gadea & Marcela Sabaté, 2009. "Government Solvency or just Pseudo-Sustainability? a Long-Run Multicointegration Approach for Spain," Documentos de Trabajo dt2009-07, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
  • Handle: RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2009-07
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.dteconz.unizar.es/DT2009-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Bruce E. & Seo, Byeongseon, 2002. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in vector error-correction models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 293-318, October.
    2. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    3. Francisco De Castro & Pablo Hernández De Cos, 2002. "On the sustainability of the Spanish public budget performance," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 160(1), pages 9-28, march.
    4. María Dolores Gadea & Marcela Sabaté & Regina Escario, 2008. "Beating fiscal dominance. The case of Spain, 1874-1998," Documentos de Trabajo dt2008-08, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.
    5. Haug, Alfred A, 1995. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 104-118, January.
    6. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    7. Fratianni,Michele & Spinelli,Franco, 2005. "A Monetary History of Italy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521023450, October.
    8. Engsted, T. & Johansen, S., 1997. "Granger's Representation Theorem and Multicointegration," Economics Working Papers eco97/15, European University Institute.
    9. Gael M. Martin, 2000. "US deficit sustainability: a new approach based on multiple endogenous breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 83-105.
    10. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2004. "Searching for threshold effects in the evolution of budget deficits: an application to the Spanish case," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 239-243, February.
    11. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    12. Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The asymptotics of single-equation cointegration regressions with I(1) and I(2) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 153-181, July.
    13. Sabate, Marcela & Gadea, Maria Dolores & Escario, Regina, 2006. "Does fiscal policy influence monetary policy? The case of Spain, 1874-1935," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 309-331, April.
    14. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    15. Engsted, Tom & Gonzalo, Jesus & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Testing for multicointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 259-266, November.
    16. Lori Leachman & Bill Francis, 2002. "Twin Deficits: Apparition or Reality?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(9), pages 1121-1132.
    17. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    18. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    19. Arghyrou, Michael G. & Luintel, Kul B., 2007. "Government solvency: Revisiting some EMU countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 387-410, June.
    20. Bertola, Giuseppe & Drazen, Allan, 1993. "Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 11-26, March.
    21. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Diaz-Roldan, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2006. "Is the budget deficit sustainable when fiscal policy is non-linear? The case of Spain," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 596-608, September.
    22. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    23. Lori Leachman & Alan Bester & Guillermo Rosas & Peter Lange, 2005. "Multicointegration and Sustainability of Fiscal Practices," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 454-466, April.
    24. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    25. Smith, Gregor W & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Persistent Deficits and the Market Value of Government Debt," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(1), pages 31-44, Jan.-Marc.
    26. Cecilio R. Tamarit & Vicente Esteve Garcia & Mariam Camarero, 1998. "- Cambio De Régimen Y Sostenibilidad A Largo Plazo De La Política Fiscal: El Caso De España," Working Papers. Serie EC 1998-15, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    27. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    28. Johansen, Søren, 1992. "A Representation of Vector Autoregressive Processes Integrated of Order 2," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(02), pages 188-202, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. T. Aparicio & I. Villanúa, 2012. "Selection criteria for overlapping binary Models," Documentos de Trabajo dt2012-01, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Universidad de Zaragoza.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    deficit; seigniorage; sustainability; multicointegration;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zar:wpaper:dt2009-07. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Vicente Pinilla). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/fezares.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.