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Fiscal Readjustments In The United States: A Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis

Author

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  • ANDREA CIPOLLINI
  • BASSAM FATTOUH
  • KOSTAS MOURATIDIS

Abstract

"We analyze the fiscal adjustment process in the United States using a multivariate threshold vector error regression model. The shift from single-equation to multivariate setting adds value both in terms of our economic understanding of the fiscal adjustment process and the forecasting performance of nonlinear models. We find evidence that fiscal authorities intervene to reduce real per capita deficit only when it reaches a certain threshold and that fiscal adjustment takes place primarily by cutting government expenditure. The results of out-of-sample density forecast and probability forecasts suggest that a shift from a univariate autoregressive model to a multivariate model improves forecast performance. "("JEL "C32, C53, E62) Copyright (c) 2008 Western Economic Association International.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh & Kostas Mouratidis, 2009. "Fiscal Readjustments In The United States: A Nonlinear Time-Series Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 34-54, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecinqu:v:47:y:2009:i:1:p:34-54
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Piergallini, Alessandro & Postigliola, Michele, 2013. "Non-linear budgetary policies: Evidence from 150 years of Italian public finance," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 495-498.
    2. Piergallini, Alessandro, 2012. "Non-Linear Fiscal Regimes and Interest Rate Policy," MPRA Paper 42671, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Asymmetries in the revenue–expenditure nexus: A tale of three countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 52-60.
    4. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2017. "Is the Thai Government Revenue-Spending Nexus Asymmetric?," MPRA Paper 83163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Phiri, Andrew, 2016. "Asymmetries in the revenue-expenditure nexus: New evidence from South Africa," MPRA Paper 75224, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Giancarlo Marini & Alessandro Piergallini, 2008. "Indicators and Tests of Fiscal Sustainability: An Integrated Approach," CEIS Research Paper 111, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 11 Jul 2008.
    7. Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Psarianos, Iacovos, 2014. "Fiscal imbalances and asymmetric adjustment under Labour and Conservative governments in the UK," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(3), pages 208-213.
    8. Cascio, Iolanda Lo, 2015. "A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 33-37.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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