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A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability

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  • Cascio, Iolanda Lo

Abstract

In this paper, we reassess the relationship between primary deficit and lagged debt to GDP ratio (Bohn, 1998), to test for US debt sustainability over the period 1795–2012. Our analysis is rooted in the wavelet domain enabling the detection of interesting patterns and otherwise hidden information. We find evidence of long term fiscal sustainability but only up until 1995 and also we show that governments tend to respond more vigorously to budget deficits when the level of debt is high rather than low.

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  • Cascio, Iolanda Lo, 2015. "A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 33-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:51:y:2015:i:c:p:33-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.07.008
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    6. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    7. Magazzino, Cosimo & Giolli, Lorenzo, 2021. "The relationship among railway networks, energy consumption, and real added value in Italy. Evidence form ARDL and Wavelet analysis," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Sangram Keshari Jena & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Shawkat Hammoudeh & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2020. "Dynamics of FII flows and stock market returns in a major developing country: How does economic uncertainty matter?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(8), pages 2263-2284, August.
    9. Mahsa Fathalizadeh, 2016. "Assessing the Iranian Fiscal Sustainability in Past and Future through Tax Side of the Economy," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(2), pages 187-201, Spring.
    10. Cosimo Magazzino & Mihai Mutascu, 2019. "A wavelet analysis of Italian fiscal sustainability," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-13, December.

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