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Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability

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  • Vanessa Berenguer‐Rico
  • Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre

Abstract

In the last two decades, fiscal sustainability has been tested through the use of non-stationary time series analysis. Two different approximations can be found in the literature: first, a univariate approach that has focused on the stochastic properties of the stock of debt and, second, a multivariate one that has focused on the long‐run properties of the flows of expenditures and revenues, i.e., in the stochastic properties of the deficit. In this paper we unify these approaches considering the stock–flow system that fiscal variables configure. Our approach involves working in an I(2) stochastic processes framework. Given the possibility of the existence of regime shifts in the sustainability of US deficit that the literature has pointed out, we develop a new statistic that can be applied to test several types of I(2) cointegration and multicointegration relationships allowing for regime shifts. To test for these kinds of changing long‐run relationships we propose the use of a residual‐based Dickey–Fuller class of statistic that accounts for one structural break. We show that consistent estimates of the break fraction can be obtained through the minimization of the sum of squared residuals when there is I(2) cointegration. The finite sample performance of the proposed statistic is investigated by Monte Carlo simulations. The econometric methodology is applied to assess whether the US fiscal deficit and debt are sustainable. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Vanessa Berenguer‐Rico & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre, 2011. "Regime shifts in stock–flow I(2)–I(1) systems: the case of US fiscal sustainability," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 298-321, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:japmet:v:26:y:2011:i:2:p:298-321
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jae.1139
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    Cited by:

    1. Camarero, Mariam & Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2013. "Global imbalances and the intertemporal external budget constraint: A multicointegration approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5357-5372.
    2. Triches, Divanildo & Sleimann Bertussi, Luis Antônio, 2017. "Multicointegração e sustentabilidade da política fiscal no Brasil com regime de quebras estruturais (1997-2015)," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 71(3), September.
    3. Daniel, Betty C. & Shiamptanis, Christos, 2013. "Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2307-2321.
    4. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "“The relationship between debt level and fiscal sustainability in OECD countries”," AQR Working Papers 201307, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Sep 2013.
    5. Magazzino, Cosimo & Brady, Gordon L. & Forte, Francesco, 2019. "A panel data analysis of the fiscal sustainability of G-7 countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    6. Christos Shiamptanis, 2012. "Risk Assessment Under a Non-linear Fiscal Rule," Working Papers 038, Ryerson University, Department of Economics.
    7. Bruns, Stephan B. & Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2020. "A multicointegration model of global climate change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 175-197.
    8. Yoon, Gawon, 2012. "Explosive U.S. budget deficit," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1076-1080.
    9. António Afonso & João Jalles, 2014. "A longer-run perspective on fiscal sustainability," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 41(4), pages 821-847, November.
    10. Cascio, Iolanda Lo, 2015. "A wavelet analysis of US fiscal sustainability," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 33-37.
    11. Josep Lluís Carrion-I-Silvestre, 2016. "Fiscal Deficit Sustainability of the Spanish Regions," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(10), pages 1702-1713, October.
    12. Neto, David, 2020. "Tracking fiscal discipline. Looking for a PIIGS on the wing," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 147-154.
    13. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2018. "Is there a bubble component in government debt? New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 467-486.
    14. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    15. Tomás Barrio & Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 2019. "Testing for Periodic Integration with a Changing Mean," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 54(1), pages 45-75, June.
    16. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Laura Sauci, 2020. "Public finances in the EU-27: Are they sustainable?," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 181-204, February.
    17. Igor Kheifets & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2019. "Fully Modified Least Squares for Multicointegrated Systems," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2210, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.

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