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A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy

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  • Dreger, Christian

Abstract

In this paper a structural macroeconometric model for the Eurozone is presented. In opposite to the multi country modelling approach, the model relies on aggregate data on the supra-national level. Due to nonstationarity, all equations are estimated in an error correction form. The cointegrating relations are derived jointly with the short-run dynamics, avoiding the finite sample bias of the two step Engle Granger procedure. The validity of the aggregated approach is confirmed by out-of-sample forecasts and two simulation exercises. In particular the implications of a lower economic recovery in the US and a shock in the nominal Euro area interest rate are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Dreger, Christian, 2003. "A macroeconometric model for the Euro economy," IWH Discussion Papers 181, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:iwhdps:iwh-181
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    1. Albacete, Rebeca & Espasa, Antoni, 2005. "Forecasting inflation in the euro area using monthly time series models and quarterly econometric models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws050401, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Klein, Lawrence R. & Kushnirsky, Fyodor I. & Maksymenko, Svitlana V., 2012. "Macroeconometric study of Ukraine's growth and reform," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 325-340.
    3. Scheufele, Rolf, 2008. "Das makroökonometrische Modell des IWH: Eine angebotsseitige Betrachtung," IWH Discussion Papers 9/2008, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    4. Dreger, Christian & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2013. "Does euro area membership affect the relation between GDP growth and public debt?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 481-486.
    5. Sam Olofin & Olusanya Olubusoye & Afees A. Salisu & Alarudeen Aminu & Uwatt B. Uwatt & Micheal A. Adebiyi, 2017. "Revision of the small macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy," Working Papers 032, Centre for Econometric and Allied Research, University of Ibadan.
    6. Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Catherine Mathieu & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Doit-on oublier la politique budgétaire ?. Une analyse critique de la nouvelle théorie anti-keynésienne des finances publiques," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 92(1), pages 43-97.
    7. Pierre-Olivier Beffy & Xavier Bonnet & Brieuc Monfort & Matthieu Darracq-Pariès & Jérôme Henry, 2003. "MZE, un modèle macroéconométrique pour la zone euro ; suivi d'un commentaire de Jérome Henry," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 367(1), pages 3-37.
    8. Dreger, Christian & Zhang, Yanqun, 2014. "Does the economic integration of China affect growth and inflation in industrial countries?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 184-189.
    9. Christian Dreger & Florian Zinsmeister, 2007. "Das IMM: ein makroökonometrisches Mehrländermodell," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 35-46.
    10. Paredes, Joan & Pedregal, Diego J. & Pérez, Javier J., 2014. "Fiscal policy analysis in the euro area: Expanding the toolkit," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 800-823.
    11. Alberto Bagnai & Christian Alexander Mongeau Ospina, 2014. "The a/simmetrie annual macroeconometric model of the Italian economy: structure and properties," a/ Working Papers Series 1405, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    12. Antipa, Pamfili & Barhoumi, Karim & Brunhes-Lesage, Véronique & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Nowcasting German GDP: A comparison of bridge and factor models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 864-878.
    13. Qiao, Zhuo & Chu, Patrick Kuok-Kun, 2014. "Does fine wine price contain useful information to forecast GDP? Evidence from major developed countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 75-79.
    14. Aizhan Bolatbayeva & Alisher Tolepbergen & Nurdaulet Abilov, 2020. "A macroeconometric model for Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 6(2), pages 114-143, June.
    15. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
    16. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Münch, Heinz Josef & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "Methoden mittelfristiger gesamtwirtschaftlicher Projektionen: Dienstleistungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, Projektnummer 02/05. Vorläufiger Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69948.
    17. Senra, Eva & Espasa, Antoni, 2017. "22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24678, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    18. Olofin, S.O. & Olubusoye, O.E. & Mordi, C.N.O. & Salisu, A.A. & Adeleke, A.I. & Orekoya, S.O. & Olowookere, A.E. & Adebiyi, M.A., 2014. "A small macroeconometric model of the Nigerian economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 305-313.
    19. Olofin, S.O. & Salisu, A.A & Tule, M.K, 2020. "Revised Small Macro-Econometric Model Of The Nigerian Economy," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 20(1), pages 97-116.
    20. Villaverde, José & Maza, Adolfo, 2009. "The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 289-297.
    21. Salami, Habibollah & Shahnooshi, Naser & Thomson, Kenneth J., 2009. "The economic impacts of drought on the economy of Iran: An integration of linear programming and macroeconometric modelling approaches," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(4), pages 1032-1039, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area economy; macroeconometric models; error correction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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