Assessing the Impact of Incomes Policy: The Italian Experience
The Saint Valentine's decree (1984) and the ensuing hard fought referendum (1985), which reduced the automatisms of scala mobile, started a process of redefinition of wage fixing in Italy, which culminated with the final abolition of scala mobile (1992) and the approval of Protocollo d'intesa (1993). Since then, following New Corporatist principles, a national system of centralised wage bargaining (concertazione) and the so-called "institutional indexation" have governed the determination of wages. This paper aims to assess the impact of such incomes policy agreements on the long and short run equilibrium relationship between real wages, labour productivity and unemployment. Different time series econometric tools confirm that incomes policy has altered the relationship between real wages and productivity, generating not only a permanent downward impact on prices, but also on real wages. In a sense, incomes policy has caused a new form of (upward) wage rigidity. Interestingly, no impact of incomes policy on the weak relationship between real wages and unemployment is detected. The analysis calls for a careful revision of the 1993 Protocol aimed at: a) better protecting the purchasing power of real wages without losing control on inflation; b) introducing growth generating mechanisms.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||published in: International Journal of Manpower, 2010, 31 (7), 793-817|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 228 3894 223
Fax: +49 228 3894 180
Web page: http://www.iza.org
|Order Information:|| Postal: IZA, Margard Ody, P.O. Box 7240, D-53072 Bonn, Germany|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pastore, Francesco, 1998.
"Le politiche salariali in una Unione Europea. Un'applicazione al caso italiano
[Wage policies in a Monetary Union. An Application to the case of Italy]," MPRA Paper 21182, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Mauro Costantini & Sergio de Nardis, 2007. "Estimates of Structural Changes in the Wage Equation:Some Evidence for Italy," ISAE Working Papers 86, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
- Alogoskoufis, George & Smith, Ron, 1991. " On Error Correction Models: Specification, Interpretation, Estimation," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 5(1), pages 97-128.
- Pierse, R. G. & Snell, A. J., 1995. "Temporal aggregation and the power of tests for a unit root," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 333-345, February.
- Bean, C R & Layard, P R G & Nickell, S J, 1986. "The Rise in Unemployment: A Multi-country Study," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 53(210(S)), pages S1-22, Supplemen.
- Devicienti, Francesco & Maida, Agata & Pacelli, Lia, 2008.
"The resurrection of the Italian wage curve,"
Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 335-341, March.
- Francesco Devicienti & Agata Maida & Lia Pacelli, 2006. "The Resurrection of the Italian Wage Curve," LABORatorio R. Revelli Working Papers Series 52, LABORatorio R. Revelli, Centre for Employment Studies.
- Devicenti francesco & Maida Agata & Pacelli Lia, 2005. "The Resurrection of the Italian Wage Curve," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 200502, University of Turin.
- Eric Zivot & Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990.
"Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
944, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 1992. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 251-70, July.
- Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2005.
"European Unemployment: The Evolution of Facts and Ideas,"
NBER Working Papers
11750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Olivier Blanchard, 2006. "European unemployment: the evolution of facts and ideas," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(45), pages 5-59, 01.
- Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Gian Paolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2001.
"The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case,"
Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 259-289, May.
- Fabiani, Silvia & Locarno, Alberto & Oneto, Giampaolo & Sestito, Paolo, 2000. "The sources of unemployment fluctuations: an empirical application to the Italian case," Working Paper Series 0029, European Central Bank.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno, . "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR apporach," Working Papers 96-19, FEDEA.
- Leonello Tronti, 2010. "The Italian productivity slow-down: the role of the bargaining model," International Journal of Manpower, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 31(7), pages 770-792, November.
- Acocella Nicola & Leoni Riccardo, 2010. "La riforma della contrattazione: redistribuzione perversa o produzione di reddito?," Rivista italiana degli economisti, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 237-274.
- Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1994.
"Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 631-53, October.
- Newey, W.K. & West, K.D., 1992. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Working papers 9220, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Kenneth D. West & Whitney K. Newey, 1995. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0144, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 2005. "Macroeconomics: Imperfections, Institutions, and Policies," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198776222.
- Sergio DESTEFANIS & Giuseppe MASTROMATTEO & Giovanni VERGA, 2005. "Wages and Monetary Policy in Italy Before and After the Wage Agreements," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 113(2), pages 289-318.
- Newell, A. & Symons, J. S. V., 1987. "Corporatism, laissez-faire and the rise in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 567-601, April.
- Dolado, Juan J. & Jimeno, Juan F., 1997. "The causes of Spanish unemployment: A structural VAR approach," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(7), pages 1281-1307, July.
- Lucio Baccaro, 2000. "Centralized collective bargaining and the problem of "compliance": Lessons from the Italian experience," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 53(4), pages 579-601, July.
- Leonello Tronti, 2007. "The July Protocol and Economic Growth: The Chance Missed," AIEL Series in Labour Economics, in: Nicola Acocella & Riccardo Leoni (ed.), Social Pacts, Employment and Growth. A Reappraisal of Ezio Tarantelli’s Thought, edition 1, chapter 5, pages 69-95 AIEL - Associazione Italiana Economisti del Lavoro.
- Golinelli Roberto, 1998. "Fatti stilizzati e metodi econometrici "moderni": una rivisitazione della curva di Phillips per l'Italia (1951-1996)," Politica economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 411-446.
- Giulio Piccirilli & Nicola ACOCELLA & Riccardo LEONI, 2008. "Social Pacts, Employment and Growth. A reappraisal of Ezio Tarantelli’s thought," Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, Vita e Pensiero, Pubblicazioni dell'Universita' Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, vol. 116(3), pages 365-372.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp5082. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mark Fallak)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.