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Interpreting an Error Correction Model: Partial Adjustment, Forward-Looking Behaviour, and Dynamic International Money Demand


  • Domowitz, Ian
  • Hakkio, Craig S


An error correction model is derived from a stochastic dynamic programming problem incorporating rational expectations. A parametric restriction is derived that allows a test for the theoretical proposition that the optimal strategy behind the error correction form entails the failure to asymptotically close the gap between the choice variable and the growing target. This is accomplished by nesting a partial adjustment model with forward-looking expectations within the error correction paradigm. The counterintuitive behavior embodied in the error correction model is not supported by the data in the context of a cross-country comparison of cash balances relationships. Copyright 1990 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Domowitz, Ian & Hakkio, Craig S, 1990. "Interpreting an Error Correction Model: Partial Adjustment, Forward-Looking Behaviour, and Dynamic International Money Demand," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 29-46, January-M.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:5:y:1990:i:1:p:29-46

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Fair, Ray C & Taylor, John B, 1983. "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(4), pages 1169-1185, July.
    3. De Long, James Bradford & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1031-1044, December.
    4. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    5. Parke, William R, 1982. "An Algorithm for FIML and 3SLS Estimation of Large Nonlinear Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 81-95, January.
    6. Taylor, John B., 1980. "Output and price stability: An international comparison," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 109-132, May.
    7. Taylor, John B & Uhlig, Harald, 1990. "Solving Nonlinear Stochastic Growth Models: A Comparison of Alternative Solution Methods," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. King, Stephen R, 1988. "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing? Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(1), pages 0234-0234, March.
    9. Fair, Ray C. & Parke, William R., 1980. "Full-information estimates of a nonlinear macroeconometric model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 269-291, August.
    10. Fair, Ray C, 1993. "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 169-190, April.
    11. John B. Taylor, 1989. "Policy Analysis With a Multicountry Model," NBER Working Papers 2881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Arize, A. C. & Malindretos, John & Grivoyannis, Elias C., 2005. "Inflation-rate volatility and money demand: Evidence from less developed countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 57-80.
    2. Subramanian S Sriram, 1999. "Survey of Literature on Demand for Money; Theoretical and Empirical Work with Special Reference to Error-Correction Models," IMF Working Papers 99/64, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Engsted, Tom & Haldrup, Niels, 1997. "Money demand, adjustment costs, and forward-looking behavior," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 153-173, April.
    4. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Shwiff, Steven S., 1999. "Structural breaks, cointegration, and speed of adjustment Evidence from 12 LDCs money demand," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 399-420, November.
    5. James Boughton, 1992. "International comparisons of money demand," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 323-343, October.

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