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Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam

Author

Listed:
  • A. Bagnai

    (Department of Economics, University ‘Gabriele D’Annunzio’, Chieti, Italy)

  • A. Rieber

    (Department of Economics, University of Rouen, France)

  • T.A.D. Tran

    () (DIAL, Institute of Research for Development, Vietnam)

Abstract

Our paper examines the long run relationship in Vietnam between economic growth and the current account balance equilibrium by relying on the BoP constrained growth model. We find that Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted when the period 1985 to 2010 as a whole is considered, but with different behavior for the 1998-2010 sub-period. The relative price effect is neutral, allowing the volume effects to dominate in setting the BoP constraint. The high income elasticities of exports enable growth in the advanced countries to have a multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. However, this effect is hindered by a high ‘appetite’ for imports coming from Asia. We also assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam’s growth for the period 2011 to 2017.

Suggested Citation

  • A. Bagnai & A. Rieber & T.A.D. Tran, 2013. "Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam," Working Papers 13, Development and Policies Research Center (DEPOCEN), Vietnam.
  • Handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:1313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; BoP constrained growth model; Multi country model; Asia; Vietnam;

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

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