Economic growth and balance of payments constraint in Vietnam
Our paper examines the long run relationship in Vietnam between economic growth and the current account balance equilibrium by relying on the BoP constrained growth model. We find that Vietnam grew less than the rate predicted when the period 1985 to 2010 as a whole is considered, but with different behavior for the 1998-2010 sub-period. The relative price effect is neutral, allowing the volume effects to dominate in setting the BoP constraint. The high income elasticities of exports enable growth in the advanced countries to have a multiplier effect on the Vietnamese economy. However, this effect is hindered by a high ‘appetite’ for imports coming from Asia. We also assess the impact of the current crisis on Vietnam’s growth for the period 2011 to 2017.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 8-9 2nd Floor, 216 Tran Quang Khai Street, Hanoi|
Web page: http://www.depocenwp.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979.
"The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences,"
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review,
Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
- Anthony Philip Thirlwall, 1979. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 32(128), pages 45-53.
- Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "The Balance of Payments Constraint as an Explanation of International Growth Rate Differences," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 429-438.
- Campbell, John & Perron, Pierre, 1991.
"Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,"
3374863, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Allan w. Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992.
"residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts,"
862, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- John Elder & Peter E. Kennedy, 2001. "Testing for Unit Roots: What Should Students Be Taught?," The Journal of Economic Education, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 137-146, January.
- Cline, William R., 1982. "Can the East Asian model of development be generalized?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 81-90, February.
- Dolado, Juan J & Jenkinson, Tim & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon, 1990. " Cointegration and Unit Roots," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 249-73.
- Jörg Mayer, 2002.
"The Fallacy of Composition: A Review of the Literature,"
The World Economy,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 875-894, 06.
- Jörg Mayer, 2003. "The Fallacy Of Composition: A Review Of The Literature," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 166, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Ardeshir Sepehri & A Haroon Akram-lodhi, 2005. "Transition, savings and growth in Vietnam: a three-gap analysis," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(4), pages 553-574.
- Faini, Riccardo & Clavijo, Fernando & Senhadji-Semlali, Abdel, 1992. "The fallacy of composition argument : Is it relevant for LDCs' manufactures exports?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 865-882, May.
- Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie & Kaukab Naqvi, 2010.
"Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth,"
Oxford Development Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 477-496.
- Felipe, Jesus & McCombie, J. S. L. & Naqvi, Kaukab, 2009. "Is Pakistan’s Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 160, Asian Development Bank.
- Abbott, Philip & Bentzen, Jeanet & Tarp, Finn, 2009. "Trade and Development: Lessons from Vietnam's Past Trade Agreements," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 341-353, February.
- Otero, Jesus & Smith, Jeremy, 2000. "Testing for cointegration: power versus frequency of observation -- further Monte Carlo results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 5-9, April.
- Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015.
"Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- A. P. Thirlwall, 2011.
"Balance of Payments Constrained Growth Models: History and Overview,"
Studies in Economics
1111, School of Economics, University of Kent.
- Anthony P. Thirlwall, 2011. "Balance of payments constrained growth models: history and overview," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 64(259), pages 307-351.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dpc:wpaper:1313. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Doan Quang Hung)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.