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Manufacturing exports and growth: When is a developing country ready to transition from primary exports to manufacturing exports?

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  • Sheridan, Brandon J.

Abstract

Why do many developing countries still rely on primary goods as their main source of export income when evidence suggests they could earn higher returns by exporting manufactured goods? I use data for a wide cross-section of countries over the period 1970–2009 and find that although increasing manufacturing exports is important for sustained economic growth, this relationship only holds once a threshold level of development is reached. Specifically, I use an endogenous sample-splitting technique, known as regression tree analysis, to identify possible economic development thresholds in the relationship between the level of manufacturing exports and GDP per capita growth. The results imply that a country needs to achieve a minimum level of human capital before it is beneficial to transition from a reliance on primary exports to manufacturing exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Sheridan, Brandon J., 2014. "Manufacturing exports and growth: When is a developing country ready to transition from primary exports to manufacturing exports?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1-13.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.06.002
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    2. Ridha Nouira & Sami Saafi, 2022. "What Drives the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Growth? The Role of Human Capital, Institutional Quality, and Economic Development," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(3), pages 1944-1961, September.
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    7. Gitana Dudzeviciute & Agne Shimelyte & Jurate Antanaviciene, 2017. "Causal Nexus Between Export and Economic Growth in the European Union Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 13(2), pages 107-120.
    8. Saafi Sami & Nouira Ridha, 2018. "Re-Examining the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: Is there a Threshold Effect?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 49(4), pages 437-454.
    9. Mohamed Chakroun & Naima Chrid & Sami Saafi, 2021. "Does export upgrading really matter to economic growth? Evidence from panel data for high‐, middle‐ and low‐income countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5584-5609, October.
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    11. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "The Export-Led Growth Hypothesis: New Evidence and Implications," MPRA Paper 77917, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jun 2015.
    12. Nickolaos G. Tzeremes, 2019. "Technological change, technological catch-up and export orientation: evidence from Latin American Countries," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 85-100, December.
    13. Klimis Vogiatzoglou, 2019. "Export Composition and Long-run Economic Growth Impact: A Cointegration Analysis for ASEAN ‘Latecomer’ Economies," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 13(2), pages 168-191, May.
    14. Bosupeng, Mpho, 2015. "Exports Multiplicity and The Dutch Disease," MPRA Paper 77919, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.
    15. Donny Tang, 2015. "Has the European Financial Integration Promoted the Economic Growth Among the New European Union Countries?," Research in Economics and Business: Central and Eastern Europe, Tallinn School of Economics and Business Administration, Tallinn University of Technology, vol. 7(1).
    16. Omojolaibi, Joseph & Mesagan, Ekundayo & Olaifa, Adeyemi, 2015. "The Impact of Non-oil Export on Domestic Investment in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 70201, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Kong, Dongmin & Kong, Gaowen & Pang, Lirang & Zhang, Jian, 2018. "Who gets the wage premium from export: Top managers or employees?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 356-370.
    18. Carlos A. CARRASCO & Edgar D. TOVAR-GARCIA, 2020. "Export Composition and the Eurozone Trade Balance in Manufacturing Goods," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 134-150, March.
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    20. Kai Chen & Dongwon Lee, 2023. "Commodity currency reactions and the Dutch disease: the role of capital controls," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2065-2089, November.
    21. Carlos A. Carrasco & Edgar Demetrio Tovar-García, 2021. "Trade and growth in developing countries: the role of export composition, import composition and export diversification," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 919-941, November.
    22. Donny TANG, 2020. "What determines the portfolio investment flows to Central and Eastern European Countries in the European Union 2001-2017?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(4(625), W), pages 21-42, Winter.
    23. Abdullah Altun & Ilker Ibrahim Avsar & Taner Turan & Halit Yanikkaya, 2023. "Does global value chain participation boost high technology exports?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 820-837, July.
    24. Nan Li & Lipeng Sun & Xiao Luo & Rong Kang & Mingde Jia, 2019. "Foreign Trade Structure, Opening Degree and Economic Growth in Western China," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-14, June.
    25. Ndambendia, Houdou, 2014. "Exports diversification and knowledge sharing from south-south and south-north economic cooperation: evidence from the Central and West Africa," MPRA Paper 71571, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2015.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth of developing countries; Trade; Exports; Regression tree;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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