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Exports and economic growth: The case of South Africa

  • Logan Rangasamy

    (Research Department, South African Reserve Bank, Pretoria, South Africa)

Economic policy has always accorded an important role to export production in the overall growth process in South Africa. Recent policy proposals once again reaffirm this commitment. This paper attempts to ascertain whether the emphasis on export production is justified. Using modern econometric techniques within a multivariate framework, the results show that there is uni-directional Granger-causality running from exports to economic growth in South Africa. In addition, the gross domestic product (GDP) accounting identity underestimates the contribution of exports to economic growth. Thus, deliberate policy measures that stimulate export production will greatly enhance the growth prospects for the South African economy. The results in this paper also indicate that more attention should be given to the promotion of non-primary exports. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/jid.1501
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of International Development.

Volume (Year): 21 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 603-617

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Handle: RePEc:wly:jintdv:v:21:y:2009:i:5:p:603-617
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  1. Merle Holden, 1993. "Lessons for South Africa from the New Growth and Trade Theories," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 61(4), pages 262-270, December.
  2. David Greenaway & David Sapsford, . "What does Liberalisation do for Exports and Growth?," Working Papers ec4/94, Department of Economics, University of Lancaster.
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  10. Urvashi Dhawan & Bagala Biswal, 1999. "Re-examining export-led growth hypothesis: a multivariate cointegration analysis for India," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 525-530.
  11. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  12. C. F. Scheepers, 1982. "The International Trade Strategy of South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 50(1), pages 8-15, 03.
  13. Irene Henriques & Perry Sadorsky, 1996. "Export-Led Growth or Growth-Driven Exports? The Canadian Case," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 29(3), pages 540-55, August.
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