IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nrb/journl/v32y2020i2p1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Estimating Optimum Growth-Maximizing Public Debt Threshold for Nepal

Author

Listed:
  • Gopal Prasad Bhatta, PhD

    (Nepal Rastra Bank (Central Bank of Nepal))

  • Anu Mishra

    (Kings College, Nepal and freelance researcher in public and financial economics)

Abstract

One of the common agenda of underdeveloped economies is to achieve a high and sustainable level of economic growth in the long run. Domestic and external borrowings are playing a crucial role in fulfilling the resource gap in the context of Nepal for a long period. A growing number of recent studies support the idea of a debt threshold level (turning point) above which debt starts reducing economic growth. This paper empirically investigates the relationship between economic growth and several other factors (investment, trade openness, population growth, domestic savings, and government debt) in the context of Nepal. The debt-growth relationship has been estimated by regression analysis and further explored the non-linear relationship between public debt and economic growth using time series annual data for the period of 1976-2019. The ARDL bound technique has been applied to estimate the short-run and the long run impact of debt on economic growth. Moreover, a quadratic bivariate model based on ARDL coefficients has been estimated to identify the growth maximizing level of debt. The estimated parameters confirm the optimum public debt to GDP ratio in the context of Nepal is 33 per cent. The policy implication of this finding for the Government of Nepal (GoN) is to ensure public debt management in line with the growth maximizing debt threshold. Further, a high level of trade deficits and government effectiveness in public sector management squeezes the fiscal space in utilizing adequate public debt in Nepal.

Suggested Citation

  • Gopal Prasad Bhatta, PhD & Anu Mishra, 2020. "Estimating Optimum Growth-Maximizing Public Debt Threshold for Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Economic Research Department, vol. 32(2), pages 1-28, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:32:y:2020:i:2:p:1
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v32i2.35298
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nrb.org.np/contents/uploads/2020/12/1.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.3126/nrber.v32i2.35298?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    2. Alexander Chudik & Kamiar Mohaddes & M. Hashem Pesaran & Mehdi Raissi, 2017. "Is There a Debt-Threshold Effect on Output Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(1), pages 135-150, March.
    3. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    4. Gilles Saint-Paul, 1992. "Fiscal Policy in an Endogenous Growth Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(4), pages 1243-1259.
    5. Jaejoon Woo & Manmohan S. Kumar, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82(328), pages 705-739, October.
    6. Sokbae Lee & Hyunmin Park & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2017. "Testing for a Debt‐Threshold Effect on Output Growth," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 38, pages 701-717, December.
    7. Aiyagari, S. Rao & McGrattan, Ellen R., 1998. "The optimum quantity of debt," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 447-469, October.
    8. Jesus Felipe & J. S. L. McCombie & Kaukab Naqvi, 2010. "Is Pakistan's Growth Rate Balance-of-Payments Constrained? Policies and Implications for Development and Growth," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 477-496.
    9. Stephen Cecchetti & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2011. "The real effects of debt," BIS Working Papers 352, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Bahal, Girish & Raissi, Mehdi & Tulin, Volodymyr, 2018. "Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and private investment in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 323-333.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    12. Chen, Chuanglian & Yao, Shujie & Hu, Peiwei & Lin, Yuting, 2017. "Optimal government investment and public debt in an economic growth model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 257-278.
    13. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2017. "Heterogeneity in the debt-growth nexus: Evidence from EMU countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 470-486.
    14. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Reinhart, Vincent & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2015. "Dealing with debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(S1), pages 43-55.
    15. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2013. "Growth and productivity: The role of government debt," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 384-407.
    16. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    17. Brida, Juan Gabriel & Gómez, David Matesanz & Seijas, Maria Nela, 2017. "Debt and growth: A non-parametric approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 486(C), pages 883-894.
    18. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    19. Nur Hayati Abd Rahman & Shafinar Ismail & Abdul Rahim Ridzuan, 2019. "How does public debt affect economic growth? A systematic review," Cogent Business & Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1701339-170, January.
    20. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    21. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    22. Barry P. Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2003. "The Empirics of Growth: An Update," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 113-206.
    23. Markus Ahlborn & Rainer Schweickert, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth – economic systems matter," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403, April.
    24. Eunji Kim & Yoonhee Ha & Sangheon Kim, 2017. "Public Debt, Corruption and Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-30, March.
    25. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Mr. Luis D Barrot, 2011. "A Debt Intolerance Framework Applied to Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic," IMF Working Papers 2011/220, International Monetary Fund.
    26. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1985. "Debt, Deficits, and Finite Horizons," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(2), pages 223-247, April.
    27. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Rother, Philipp, 2012. "The impact of high government debt on economic growth and its channels: An empirical investigation for the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 1392-1405.
    28. Panagiotis Pegkas, 2018. "The Effect of Government Debt and Other Determinants on Economic Growth: The Greek Experience," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, February.
    29. Tito Cordella & Luca Antonio Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2010. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 1-24, April.
    30. Ahlborn, Markus & Schweickert, Rainer, 2018. "Public Debt and Economic Growth – Economic Systems Matter," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 15(2), pages 373-403.
    31. Mindaugas Butkus & Janina Seputiene, 2018. "Growth Effect of Public Debt: The Role of Government Effectiveness and Trade Balance," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-27, November.
    32. Vicente Esteve & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "Public debt and economic growth in Spain, 1851–2013," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(2), pages 219-249, May.
    33. Yolcu Karadam, Duygu, 2018. "An investigation of nonlinear effects of debt on growth," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 1-1.
    34. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rutayisire, J.Musoni, 2021. "Public debt dynamics and nonlinear effects on economic growth : evidence from Rwanda," MPRA Paper 110931, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdul Jalil, 2020. "Debt Sustainability: Economic Growth is the Panacea," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2020:19, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    2. Bitar, Nicholas & Chakrabarti, Avik & Zeaiter, Hussein, 2018. "Were Reinhart and Rogoff right?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 614-620.
    3. Blessy Augustine & O.P.C. Muhammed Rafi, 2021. "Public Debt - Economic Growth: Evidence of a Non-linear Relationship," BASE University Working Papers 11/2021, BASE University, Bengaluru, India.
    4. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. De Vita, Glauco & Trachanas, Emmanouil & Luo, Yun, 2018. "Revisiting the bi-directional causality between debt and growth: Evidence from linear and nonlinear tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 55-74.
    6. Eberhardt, Markus & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2015. "Public debt and growth: Heterogeneity and non-linearity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 45-58.
    7. Attard, Juergen, 2019. "Public Debt and Economic Growth nexus: A Dynamic Panel ARDL approach," MPRA Paper 96023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Qamar Abbas & Li Junqing & Muhammad Ramzan & Sumbal Fatima, 2021. "Role of Governance in Debt-Growth Relationship: Evidence from Panel Data Estimations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    9. Grobéty, Mathieu, 2018. "Government debt and growth: The role of liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-22.
    10. Ikonen, Pasi, 2017. "Financial depth, debt, and growth," Bank of Finland Scientific Monographs, Bank of Finland, volume 0, number e51.
    11. Nikolaos Filippakis & Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos, 2021. "Public Debt and Economic Growth: A Review of Contemporary Literature," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 19(1), pages 33-50.
    12. Séverine MENGUY, 2019. "Does public indebtedness constrain or can it favor economic growth? A simple analytical modeling," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 1-29.
    13. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They're Different: Heterogeneity;and Nonlinearity in the Relationship;between Debt and Growth," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 92, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    14. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2015. "Government Debt and Economic Growth – Decomposing the Cause and Effect Relationship," MPRA Paper 64105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Cândida Ferreira, 2016. "Debt and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Panel Granger Causality Approach," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-149, May.
    16. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    17. Gu, Yanwei & Guo, Jing & Liang, Xiao & Zhao, Yajun, 2022. "Does the debt-growth link differ across private and public debt? Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    18. Shahrzad Ghourchian & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2020. "Government consumption, government debt and economic growth," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 589-605, May.
    19. Rubo Zhao & Yixiang Tian & Ao Lei & Francis Boadu & Ze Ren, 2019. "The Effect of Local Government Debt on Regional Economic Growth in China: A Nonlinear Relationship Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, May.
    20. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt; economic growth; Laffer-curve; developing economies; growth maximizing debt threshold;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • N15 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nrb:journl:v:32:y:2020:i:2:p:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Publication Division NRB (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nrbgvnp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.