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Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and private investment in India

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  • Bahal, Girish
  • Raissi, Mehdi
  • Tulin, Volodymyr

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate on the relationship between public and private investment in India along the following dimensions. First, acknowledging major structural changes that the Indian economy has undergone in the past three decades, we study whether public investment in recent years has become more or less complementary to private investment in comparison to the period before 1980. Second, we construct a novel data-set of quarterly aggregate public and private investment in India over the period 1996–2015 using investment-project data from the CapEx-CMIE database. Third, embedding a theory-driven long-run relationship on the model, we estimate a range of Structural Vector Error Correction Models (SVECMs) to re-examine the public and private investment relationship in India. Identification is achieved by decomposing shocks into those with transitory and permanent effects. Our results suggest that while public investment crowds out private investment in India over the period 1950–2012, the opposite is true when we restrict the sample to post 1980 or conduct a quarterly analysis since 1996. This change can likely be attributed to the policy reforms which started during the early 1980s and gained momentum after the 1991 crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahal, Girish & Raissi, Mehdi & Tulin, Volodymyr, 2018. "Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and private investment in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 323-333.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:109:y:2018:i:c:p:323-333
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.05.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Stupnikova & Tatyana Sukhadolets, 2019. "Construction Sector Role in Gross Fixed Capital Formation: Empirical Data from Russia," Economies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(2), pages 1-16, May.
    2. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    3. Ibrahim Ari & Muammer Koc, 2020. "Economic Growth, Public and Private Investment: A Comparative Study of China and the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(6), pages 1-19, March.
    4. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 18-27.
    5. Pan, Xiongfeng & Xu, Haitao & Li, Mengna & Zong, Tianjiao & Lee, Chew Tin & Lu, Yuduo, 2020. "Environmental expenditure spillovers: Evidence from an estimated multi-area DSGE model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    6. Chhibber, Ajay & Kalloor, Akshata, 2016. "Reviving Private Investment in India: Determinants and Policy Levers," Working Papers 16/181, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Ajay Chhibber & Akshata Kalloor, 2017. "Reviving Private Investment in India: Determinants and Policy Levers," Working Papers 2017-5, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    8. Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sahoo, Manoranjan, 2018. "Is crude oil price detrimental to domestic private investment for an emerging economy? The role of public sector investment and financial sector development in an era of globalization," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 307-324.
    9. Makuyana Garikai & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2018. "Public and Private Investment and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation," Studia Universitatis Babeș-Bolyai Oeconomica, Sciendo, vol. 63(2), pages 87-106, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    India; Public and private investment; Crowding in (out);

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures

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