IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/14944.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Balanced growth and structural breaks: Evidence for Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Herzer, Dierk
  • Kemper, Niels
  • Zamparelli, Luca

Abstract

One of the central hypotheses of the neoclassical growth literature is the balanced- growth hypothesis, which predicts that output, consumption, and investment grow at the same rate. Empirically, this implies that the consumption-to-output ratio and the investment-to-output ratio must be stationary and that consumption and investment must be cointegrated with output. This paper tests these implications with respect to Germany, using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for an endogenously determined structural break. We find that the long-run growth path of the German economy is consistent with the balanced-growth hypothesis if we allow for a structural break associated with the worldwide productivity slowdown of the early 1970s.

Suggested Citation

  • Herzer, Dierk & Kemper, Niels & Zamparelli, Luca, 2009. "Balanced growth and structural breaks: Evidence for Germany," MPRA Paper 14944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14944
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14944/1/MPRA_paper_14944.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
    2. Klump, Rainer & Saam, Marianne, 2008. "Calibration of normalised CES production functions in dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 256-259, May.
    3. Diamond, Peter & McFadden, Daniel & Rodriguez, Miguel, 1978. "Measurement of the Elasticity of Factor Substitution and Bias of Technical Change," Histoy of Economic Thought Chapters, in: Fuss, Melvyn & McFadden, Daniel (ed.),Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications, volume 2, chapter 5, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought.
    4. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    5. L. R. Klein & R. F. Kosobud, 1961. "Some Econometrics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 173-198.
    6. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2008. "Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area," Working Paper Series 915, European Central Bank.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    8. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
    9. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Medium Run Redux," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 695-727, June.
    10. Olivier de La Grandville & Rainer Klump, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March.
    11. Gã“Mez, Manuel A., 2008. "Dynamics Of The Saving Rate In The Neoclassical Growth Model With Ces Production," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(2), pages 195-210, April.
    12. Hong Li & Vince Daly, 2009. "Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 185-200, September.
    13. Jesus Clemente & Antonio Montanes & Montserrat Ponz, 1999. "Are the consumption/output and investment/output ratios stationary? An international analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 687-691.
    14. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luca Zamparelli, 2011. "Induced Innovation, Endogenous Growth, and Income Distribution: a Model along Classical Lines," Working Papers CELEG 1102, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hong Li & Vince Daly, 2009. "Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 185-200, September.
    2. Chang, Juin-Jen & Lin, Chang-Ching & Lin, Hsieh-Yu, 2016. "Great ratios and international openness," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 110-121.
    3. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo & León-Ledesma, Miguel A., 2010. "In dubio pro CES - Supply estimation with mis-specified technical change," Working Paper Series 1175, European Central Bank.
    4. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2017. "Capital productivity in industrialized economies: evidence from error-correction model and Lagrange Multiplier tests," MPRA Paper 81655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Cantore, C. & Levine, P., 2012. "Getting normalization right: Dealing with ‘dimensional constants’ in macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1931-1949.
    6. Ivan D. Trofimov, 2017. "Capital Productivity In Industrialised Economies: Evidence From Error-Correction Model And Lagrange Multiplier Tests," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, vol. 62(215), pages 53-80, October –.
    7. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    8. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    9. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Price, Simon & Petrova, Katerina, 2018. "Time varying cointegration and the UK Great Ratios," Essex Finance Centre Working Papers 23320, University of Essex, Essex Business School.
    10. Michael Knoblach & Fabian Stöckl, 2020. "What Determines The Elasticity Of Substitution Between Capital And Labor? A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(4), pages 847-875, September.
    11. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "The Normalized Ces Production Function: Theory And Empirics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 769-799, December.
    12. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-1357, September.
    13. Bahal, Girish & Raissi, Mehdi & Tulin, Volodymyr, 2018. "Crowding-out or crowding-in? Public and private investment in India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 323-333.
    14. Matteo F. Ghilardi & Raffaele Rossi, 2014. "Aggregate Stability and Balanced‐Budget Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(8), pages 1787-1809, December.
    15. Kapetanios, George & Millard, Stephen & Petrova, Katerina & Price, Simon, 2020. "Time-varying cointegration with an application to the UK Great Ratios," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    16. Girish Bahal & Mehdi Raissi & Volodymyr Tulin, 2015. "Crowding-Out or Crowding-In? Public and Private Investment in India," IMF Working Papers 2015/264, International Monetary Fund.
    17. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Jonathan Temple & Cliff Attfield, 2004. "Measuring trend growth: how useful are the great ratios?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 101, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    19. Miguel A León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2012. "Non-Balanced Growth and Production Technology Estimation," Studies in Economics 1204, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    20. Hofer Helmut & Weyerstraß Klaus & Schmidt Torsten, 2011. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 153-171, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balanced growth × Unit roots × Cointegration × Endogenous structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.