IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Balanced growth and structural breaks: Evidence for Germany

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Herzer, Dierk
  • Kemper, Niels
  • Zamparelli, Luca

Abstract

One of the central hypotheses of the neoclassical growth literature is the balanced- growth hypothesis, which predicts that output, consumption, and investment grow at the same rate. Empirically, this implies that the consumption-to-output ratio and the investment-to-output ratio must be stationary and that consumption and investment must be cointegrated with output. This paper tests these implications with respect to Germany, using unit root tests and cointegration techniques that allow for an endogenously determined structural break. We find that the long-run growth path of the German economy is consistent with the balanced-growth hypothesis if we allow for a structural break associated with the worldwide productivity slowdown of the early 1970s.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/14944/1/MPRA_paper_14944.pdf
File Function: original version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 14944.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2009
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14944
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany

Phone: +49-(0)89-2180-2459
Fax: +49-(0)89-2180-992459
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de

More information through EDIRC

Keywords: Balanced growth × Unit roots × Cointegration × Endogenous structural breaks;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
  • D91 - Microeconomics - - Intertemporal Choice - - - Intertemporal Household Choice; Life Cycle Models and Saving
  • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Shiller, Robert J. & Perron, Pierre, 1985. "Testing the random walk hypothesis : Power versus frequency of observation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 381-386.
  2. Klump, Rainer & Saam, Marianne, 2008. "Calibration of normalised CES production functions in dynamic models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 256-259, May.
  3. Diamond, Peter & McFadden, Daniel & Rodriguez, Miguel, 1978. "Measurement of the Elasticity of Factor Substitution and Bias of Technical Change," Histoy of Economic Thought Chapters,in: Fuss, Melvyn & McFadden, Daniel (ed.), Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications, volume 2, chapter 5 McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought.
  4. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
  5. L. R. Klein & R. F. Kosobud, 1961. "Some Econometrics of Growth: Great Ratios of Economics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 75(2), pages 173-198.
  6. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
  7. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1991. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 819-840, September.
  8. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2008. "Medium run redux: technical change, factor shares and frictions in the euro area," Working Paper Series 0915, European Central Bank.
  9. Olivier de La Grandville & Rainer Klump, 2000. "Economic Growth and the Elasticity of Substitution: Two Theorems and Some Suggestions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 282-291, March.
  10. Gómez, Manuel A., 2008. "Dynamics Of The Saving Rate In The Neoclassical Growth Model With Ces Production," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(02), pages 195-210, April.
  11. Hong Li & Vince Daly, 2009. "Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 185-200, September.
  12. Jesus Clemente & Antonio Montanes & Montserrat Ponz, 1999. "Are the consumption/output and investment/output ratios stationary? An international analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(10), pages 687-691.
  13. David Harvey & Stephen Leybourne & Paul Newbold, 2003. "How great are the great ratios?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 163-177.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Luca Zamparelli, 2011. "Induced Innovation, Endogenous Growth, and Income Distribution: a Model along Classical Lines," Working Papers CELEG 1102, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:14944. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.