IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jpolmo/v36y2014i2p273-295.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach

Author

Listed:
  • Aristei, David
  • Gallo, Manuela

Abstract

In this paper we use a Markov-switching vector autoregressive model to analyse the interest rate pass-through between interbank and retail bank rates in the Euro area. Empirical results, based on monthly data for the period 2003–2011, show that during periods of financial distress bank lending rates to both households and non-financial corporations show a reduction of their degree of pass-through from the money market rate. Significant sectoral heterogeneities characterise the transmission mechanism of monetary policy impulses, with rates on loans to non-financial firms being more affected by changes in the interbank rate than loans to households, both in times of high volatility and in normal market conditions.

Suggested Citation

  • Aristei, David & Gallo, Manuela, 2014. "Interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the financial crisis: A multivariate regime-switching approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 273-295.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:36:y:2014:i:2:p:273-295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.12.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0161893814000118
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.12.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bondt Gabe J. de, 2005. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Empirical Results for the Euro Area," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 37-78, February.
    2. Fried, Joel & Howitt, Peter, 1980. "Credit Rationing and Implicit Contract Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(3), pages 471-487, August.
    3. Weth, Mark A., 2002. "The pass-through from market interest rates to bank lending rates in Germany," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,11, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Leonardo Gambacorta & S. Iannotti, 2007. "Are there asymmetries in the response of bank interest rates to monetary shocks?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(19), pages 2503-2517.
    5. Alberto Humala, 2005. "Interest rate pass-through and financial crises: do switching regimes matter? the case of Argentina," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 77-94.
    6. Dahlquist, Magnus & Gray, Stephen F., 2000. "Regime-switching and interest rates in the European monetary system," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 399-419, April.
    7. Clemens Jobst & Claudia Kwapil, 2008. "The Interest Rate Pass-Through in Austria – Effects of the Financial Crisis," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 54-67.
    8. Kleimeier, S. & Sander, H., 2002. "European financial market integration: evidence on the emergence of a single Eurozone retail banking market," Research Memorandum 060, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    9. Hristov, Nikolay & Hülsewig, Oliver & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2014. "The interest rate pass-through in the Euro area during the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 104-119.
    10. Massimiliano Affinito & Fabio Farabullini, 2006. "An empirical analysis of national differences in the retail bank interest rates of the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 589, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times [Preventing deflation: Lessons from Japan’s experience in the 1990s]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(62), pages 295-339.
    12. Ritz, Robert A. & Walther, Ansgar, 2015. "How do banks respond to increased funding uncertainty?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-410.
    13. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    14. Ryo Kato author-name Takashi Ui & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2000. "Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy: Japanese Experience in the 1990s," Discussion Paper Series a388, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    15. Berger, Allen N & Udell, Gregory F, 1992. "Some Evidence on the Empirical Significance of Credit Rationing," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 1047-1077, October.
    16. Gerhard Fenz & Pirmin Fessler, 2008. "Wealth Effects on Consumption in Austria," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 68-84.
    17. Linda A. Toolsema & Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan & Jakob de Haan, 2001. "Convergence of Monetary Transmission in EMU New Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 465, CESifo.
    18. Egert, Balazs & Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Reininger, Thomas, 2007. "Interest rate pass-through in central and Eastern Europe: Reborn from ashes merely to pass away?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 209-225.
    19. Kuan-Min Wang & Thanh-Binh Nguyen Thi, 2010. "Asymmetric pass-through and risk of interest rate: an empirical exploration of Taiwan and Hong Kong," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 659-670.
    20. Martina Cecioni & Giuseppe Ferrero & Alessandro Secchi, 2018. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in Theory and in Practice," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & George G Kaufman & A G Malliaris (ed.), Innovative Federal Reserve Policies During the Great Financial Crisis, chapter 1, pages 1-36, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Boris Hofmann & Paul Mizen, 2004. "Interest Rate Pass-Through and Monetary Transmission: Evidence from Individual Financial Institutions' Retail Rates," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 99-123, February.
    22. Linzert, Tobias & Abbassi, Puriya, 2011. "The effectiveness of monetary policy in steering money market rates during the recent financial crisis," Working Paper Series 1328, European Central Bank.
    23. Kwapil, Claudia & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through, monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 236-251, March.
    24. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    25. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    26. Gambacorta, Leonardo, 2008. "How do banks set interest rates?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 792-819, July.
    27. Massimiliano Marcellino & Grayham E. Mizon & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2002. "A Markov-switching vector equilibrium correction model of the UK labour market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 233-254.
    28. Coffinet, J., 2005. "Politique monétaire unique et canal des taux d’intérêt en France et dans la zone euro," Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 136, pages 29-40.
    29. James Payne & George Waters, 2008. "Interest rate pass through and asymmetric adjustment: evidence from the federal funds rate operating target period," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(11), pages 1355-1362.
    30. Mr. Emil Stavrev & Mr. Thomas Harjes & Mr. Martin Cihak, 2009. "Euro Area Monetary Policy in Uncharted Waters," IMF Working Papers 2009/185, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    32. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    33. Gabriel Bistriceanu, 2009. "The Connection Between Bank And Interbank Interest Rates," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 12(12(541)(s), pages 657-664, December.
    34. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Non‐Standard Monetary Policy Measures," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-040, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    35. De Graeve, Ferre & De Jonghe, Olivier & Vennet, Rudi Vander, 2007. "Competition, transmission and bank pricing policies: Evidence from Belgian loan and deposit markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 259-278, January.
    36. Carlo Cottarelli & Angeliki Kourelis, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(4), pages 587-623, December.
    37. Philippine Cour-Thimann & Bernhard Winkler, 2012. "The ECB’s non-standard monetary policy measures: the role of institutional factors and financial structure," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 765-803, WINTER.
    38. Claudia Kwapil & Johann Scharler, 2006. "Limited Pass-Through from Policy to Retail Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 4, pages 26-36.
    39. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2006. "Convergence of interest rate pass-through in a wider euro zone?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 405-423, December.
    40. Egert, Balazs & Crespo-Cuaresma, Jesus & Reininger, Thomas, 2007. "Interest rate pass-through in central and Eastern Europe: Reborn from ashes merely to pass away?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 209-225.
    41. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    42. Calem, Paul S. & Gordy, Michael B. & Mester, Loretta J., 2006. "Switching costs and adverse selection in the market for credit cards: New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1653-1685, June.
    43. Richard H. Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2006. "The Role of Asymmetries and Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1193-1224, May.
    44. Paul Klemperer, 1987. "Markets with Consumer Switching Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(2), pages 375-394.
    45. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2006. "Expected versus unexpected monetary policy impulses and interest rate pass-through in euro-zone retail banking markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1839-1870, July.
    46. Clemente, Jesus & Montanes, Antonio & Reyes, Marcelo, 1998. "Testing for a unit root in variables with a double change in the mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 175-182, May.
    47. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_027 is not listed on IDEAS
    48. Marotta, Giuseppe, 2009. "Structural breaks in the lending interest rate pass-through and the euro," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 191-205, January.
    49. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wilhelm Fritz, 1995. "The response of short-term bank lending rates to policy rates: a cross-country perspective," BIS Working Papers 27, Bank for International Settlements.
    50. Rocha, Manuel Duarte, 2012. "Interest rate pass-through in Portugal: Interactions, asymmetries and heterogeneities," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 64-80.
    51. Kerstin Bernoth & Jürgen von Hagen, 2004. "The Euribor Futures Market: Efficiency and the Impact of ECB Policy Announcements," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 1-24, March.
    52. Carlo Cottarelli & Giovanni Ferri & Andrea Generale, 1995. "Bank Lending Rates and Financial Structure in Italy: A Case Study," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(3), pages 670-700, September.
    53. Ms. Angeliki Kourelis & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 1994. "Financial Structure, Bank Lending Rates, and the Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 1994/039, International Monetary Fund.
    54. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    55. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    56. Leonardo Gambacorta & David Marques-Ibanez, 2011. "The bank lending channel: lessons from the crisis [Financial intermediaries and monetary economics]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 135-182.
    57. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    58. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Shelagh A. Heffernan, 2009. "Interest rate transmission in the UK: a comparative analysis across financial firms and products," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 45-63.
    59. Sander, Harald & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2004. "Convergence in euro-zone retail banking? What interest rate pass-through tells us about monetary policy transmission, competition and integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 461-492, April.
    60. Mojon, Benoît, 2000. "Financial structure and the interest rate channel of ECB monetary policy," Working Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
    61. Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andries, Natalia & Billon, Steve, 2016. "Retail bank interest rate pass-through in the euro area: An empirical survey," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 170-194.
    2. Petrevski, Goran & Bogoev, Jane, 2012. "Interest rate pass-through in South East Europe: An empirical analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 571-593.
    3. Karagiannis, Stelios & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Vlamis, Prodromos, 2010. "Interest rate pass-through in Europe and the US: Monetary policy after the financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 323-338, May.
    4. Belke, Ansgar & Beckmann, Joscha & Verheyen, Florian, 2013. "Interest rate pass-through in the EMU – New evidence from nonlinear cointegration techniques for fully harmonized data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-24.
    5. Hennecke, Peter, 2017. "The interest rate pass-through in the low interest rate environment: Evidence from Germany," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 151, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    6. Hennecke, Peter, 2017. "Zinstransmission in der Niedrigzinsphase: Eine empirische Untersuchung des Zinskanals in Deutschland," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 150, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
    7. Iva Cecchin, 2011. "Mortgage Rate Pass-Through in Switzerland," Working Papers 2011-08, Swiss National Bank.
    8. Leontieva, E.A. & Perevyshin, Y.N., 2015. "Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission in Russia," Published Papers 431505, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    9. Aurélien Leroy & Yannick Lucotte, 2016. "Structural and Cyclical Determinants of Bank Interest-Rate Pass-Through in the Eurozone," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(2), pages 196-225, June.
    10. Avouyi-Dovi, S. & Horny, G. & Sevestre, P., 2017. "The stability of short-term interest rates pass-through in the euro area during the financial market and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 74-94.
    11. Ciccarone, Giuseppe & Giuli, Francesco & Liberati, Danilo, 2014. "Incomplete interest rate pass-through under credit and labor market frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 645-657.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15030 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bennouna, Hicham, 2019. "Interest rate pass-through in Morocco: Evidence from bank-level survey data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 142-157.
    14. Ansgar Belke & Joscha Beckmann & Florian Verheyen, 2012. "Interest Rate Pass-Through in the EMU – New Evidence from Nonlinear Cointegration Techniques for Fully Harmonized Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0350, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    15. S. Burcu Avci & Eray Yucel, 2017. "Effectiveness of monetary policy: evidence from Turkey," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 179-213, August.
    16. Jane BOGOEV, 2010. "Investigation Of The Determinants Of The Adjustment Of Lending Rates In Macedonia – A Sur Approach," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 6, pages 89-116, December.
    17. repec:zbw:rwirep:0350 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Burgstaller, Johann & Scharler, Johann, 2010. "How do bank lending rates and the supply of loans react to shifts in loan demand in the U.K.?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 778-791, November.
    19. Zulkhibri, Muhamed, 2012. "Policy rate pass-through and the adjustment of retail interest rates: Empirical evidence from Malaysian financial institutions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 409-422.
    20. Michiel van Leuvensteijn & Christoffer Kok Sørensen & Jacob A. Bikker & Adrian A.R.J.M. van Rixtel, 2013. "Impact of bank competition on the interest rate pass-through in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(11), pages 1359-1380, April.
    21. Anindya Banerjee & Victor Bystrov & Paul Mizen, 2013. "How Do Anticipated Changes to Short‐Term Market Rates Influence Banks' Retail Interest Rates? Evidence from the Four Major Euro Area Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1375-1414, October.
    22. Gregor, Jiří & Melecký, Martin, 2018. "The pass-through of monetary policy rate to lending rates: The role of macro-financial factors," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 71-88.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rate pass-through; Financial crisis; Interbank interest rate; Regime-switching vector autoregressive models; Euro area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:36:y:2014:i:2:p:273-295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505735 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.