IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pid/journl/v43y2004i4p829-852.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • M. Ali Kemal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

  • Rana Murad Haider

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.)

Abstract

The paper analyses different models to check the behaviour of exchange rate after the recent floating period in July 2000. It is found that the gap between the nominal and real exchange rate has widened after 9/11. Changes in the nominal exchange rate and real exchange rate are highly correlated and relative prices are not significantly correlated with the nominal exchange rate. Moreover, the exchange rate did not capture frequent changes in relative prices, which implies that PPP does not hold for the recent floating period. Real exchange rate always overshoots in response to exogenous shocks and then adjusts back to restore the equilibrium, although the adjustment process varies by country. The real exchange rate is not completely a random walk model and the movements are also explained by other fundamentals. It is safer to keep reserves in dollar and yen than in any other currency.

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ali Kemal & Rana Murad Haider, 2004. "Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 829-852.
    • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:4:p:829-852
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.pide.org.pk/pdf/PDR/2004/4/PartII/M%20Ali%20Kemal.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
    2. Shaista Alam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt & Azhar Iqbal, 2001. "The Long-run Relationship between Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate in Asian Countries: An Application of Panel Cointegration," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 577-602.
    3. Usman Afridi, 1995. "Determining Real Exchange Rates," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 34(3), pages 263-276.
    4. Imad A. Moosa & Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1997. "International Parity Conditions," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-349-25523-8.
    5. Sarno,Lucio & Taylor,Mark P., 2003. "The Economics of Exchange Rates," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521485845.
    6. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics with Sluggish Prices under Alternative Price-Adjustment Rules," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 159-174, February.
    7. Obstfeld, Maurice & Taylor, Alan M., 1997. "Nonlinear Aspects of Goods-Market Arbitrage and Adjustment: Heckscher's Commodity Points Revisited," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 441-479, December.
    8. Mark, Nelson C. & Choi, Doo-Yull, 1997. "Real exchange-rate prediction over long horizons," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 29-60, August.
    9. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    10. MacDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P., 1994. "The monetary model of the exchange rate: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and how to beat a random walk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 276-290, June.
    11. MacDonald, Ronald, 1999. "Exchange Rate Behaviour: Are Fundamentals Important?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 673-691, November.
    12. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    13. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1999. "Monetary Models of Dollar/Yen/Euro Nominal Exchange Rates: Dead or Undead?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 655-659, November.
    14. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
    15. Mussa, Michael, 1976. " The Exchange Rate, the Balance of Payments and Monetary and Fiscal Policy under a Regime of Controlled Floating," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 229-248.
    16. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    17. Meese, Richard A & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1988. " Was It Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation over the Modern Floating-Rate Period," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(4), pages 933-948, September.
    18. Hassan Shirvani & Barry Wilbratte, 1997. "The Relationship Between The Real Exchange Rate and The Trade Balance: An Empirical Reassessment," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 39-50.
    19. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 1997. "Do Expectations Play Any Role in Determining Pak Rupee Exchange Rates?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 263-273.
    21. Ehsan U. Choudhri & Mohsin S. Khan, 2002. "The Exchange Rate and Consumer Prices in Pakistan: Is Rupee Devaluation In Inflationary?," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 41(2), pages 107-120.
    22. Razzaque H. Bhatti, 2001. "Determining Pak Rupee Exchange Rates vis-à-vis Six Currencies of the Industrial World: Some Evidence Based on the Traditional Flow Model," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 40(4), pages 885-897.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Awais Bhatti & Noman Arshed & Muhammad Haseeb, 2013. "Performance of CHEERs Based Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Pakistan," Business and Management Horizons, Macrothink Institute, vol. 1(1), pages 17-43, June.
    2. Sushil Kumar Rai & Akhilesh Kumar Sharma, 2023. "Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility In India Under Univariate And Multivariate Analysis," Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking, Bank Indonesia, vol. 26(1), pages 175-190, March.
    3. Suresh Ramakrishnan & Shamaila Butt & Melati Ahmad Anuar, 2017. "The Impact of Macroeconomic, Oil Prices and Socio-economic Factors on Exchange Rate in Pakistan: An Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 489-499.
    4. Armida Amado & Looi Mun Choon, 2020. "Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Stock Market: An Empirical Evidence from Indonesia," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 7(1), pages 24-31.
    5. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
    3. repec:zbw:rwirep:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 0134, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    5. Taylor Mark P. & Sarno Lucio, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Transition Economies: A Nonlinear Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-26, October.
    6. Habimana, Olivier, 2017. "The multiscale relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals differentials: Empirical evidence from Scandinavia," MPRA Paper 75956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    8. Nakagawa, Hironobu, 2002. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: implications of nonlinear adjustment in real exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 629-649, April.
    9. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.
    11. Taylor, Mark P. & Peel, David A., 2000. "Nonlinear adjustment, long-run equilibrium and exchange rate fundamentals," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 33-53, February.
    12. Hina, Hafsa & Qayyum, Abdul, 2015. "Exchange Rate Determination and Out of Sample Forecasting: Cointegration Analysis," MPRA Paper 61997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Phornchanok Cumperayot, 2003. "Dusting off the Perception of Risk and Returns in FOREX Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 904, CESifo.
    15. Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 1999. "Predicting real exchange rates from real interest rate differentials and net foreign asset stocks: evidence for the mark/dollar parity," Kiel Working Papers 962, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
    17. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2004. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 13(4), pages 327-340.
    18. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    19. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
    20. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    22. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange Rate; Pakistan;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:43:y:2004:i:4:p:829-852. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Khurram Iqbal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pideipk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.