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Oil Price Shocks and the Connectedness of US State-Level Financial Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Onur Polat

    (Department of Public Finance, Bilecik Seyh Edebali University, Bilecik, Turkiye)

  • Juncal Cunado

    (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Edificio Amigos, E-31080, Pamplona, Spain)

  • Oguzhan Cepni

    (Ostim Technical University, Ankara, Turkiye; University of Edinburgh Business School, Centre for Business, Climate Change, and Sustainability; Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School, Denmark)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Private Bag X20, Hatfield 0028, South Africa)

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of oil supply, demand, and risk shocks on U.S. state-level stock and bond returns, utilizing daily data from February 1994 to March 2024. It examines the individual effects of oil price shocks on each state’s stock and bond returns and explores how fluctuations in oil prices influence the interdependence between state-level stock and bond markets. The findings reveal that oil demand shocks have a significant positive impact, while oil supply shocks have a significant negative impact on state-level stock returns. Although state-level bond returns also react to these supply and demand shocks, their response is statistically less significant than that of stock returns, indicating that cross-asset diversification is possible during periods of oil supply and demand shocks. However, both stock and bond returns are significantly and negatively affected by oil risk shocks, which implies limited opportunities for cross-asset diversification when oil price fluctuations are driven by risk factors. Additionally, the interdependence between U.S. equity and bond markets is more significantly influenced by oil risk shocks than by supply or demand shocks, suggesting an increase in the interconnectedness of stock and bond returns following an oil risk shock. Further analysis, using a reverse-MIDAS model to relate high-frequency connectedness measures to monthly oil price shocks, indicates that oil supply shocks positively and significantly impact stock market connectedness, while oil inventory demand shocks negatively affect bond market connectedness. Implications of our findings are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Onur Polat & Juncal Cunado & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Oil Price Shocks and the Connectedness of US State-Level Financial Markets," Working Papers 202438, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202438
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    Cited by:

    1. Jiawen Luo & Jingyi Deng & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "Forecasting GDP with Oil Price Shocks: A Mixed-Frequency Time-Varying Perspective," Working Papers 202523, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    2. Aaron J. Amburgey, 2025. "How Election Shocks Impact Markets: Evidence from Sectoral Stock Prices," Papers 2504.02731, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2025.
    3. Jiawen Luo & Shengjie Fu & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta, 2025. "The Role of Uncertainty in Forecasting Realized Covariance of US State-Level Stock Returns: A Reverse-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202501, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    4. Su, Xianfang & He, Jian, 2025. "Does the crude oil return matter for the new energy vehicle-related industry markets? — A comparison of complete vehicles, energy systems, and raw materials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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