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Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link

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  • Rajeev Dhawan

    (Georgia State University)

  • Karsten Jeske

    (Mellon Capital Management)

  • Pedro Silos

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta)

Abstract

We build upon recent research that attributes the moderation of output volatility since the 1980s to the reduced volatility of the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) by investigating the linkage between energy price fluctuations and the stochastic process for TFP. First, we estimate a joint stochastic process for the energy price and TFP and establish that until around 1982, energy prices negatively affected TFP. This spillover has since disappeared. Second, we show that within the framework of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, the disappearance of this energy-productivity spillover accounts for close to 68 percent of the moderation in output volatility. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:09-14
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2009.07.001
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    4. Munechika Katayama, 2013. "Declining Effects of Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(6), pages 977-1016, September.
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    7. Gamtessa, Samuel F. & Guliani, Harminder, 2024. "Oil Price and Long-run Economic Growth in Oil-importing Developing Countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(4).
    8. Adugna Olani & Samuel Gamtessa, 2016. "How Does Energy-cost Lead To Energy Efficiency? Panel Evidence From Canada," Working Paper 1368, Economics Department, Queen's University.
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    10. Yazid Dissou & Lilia Karnizova & Qian Sun, 2015. "Industry-level Econometric Estimates of Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution with a Nested CES Production Function," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 107-121, March.
    11. Hinterlang, Natascha & Jäger, Marius & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2024. "On curbing the rise in energy prices: An examination of different mitigation approaches," Discussion Papers 09/2024, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Zheng Wu & Guiliang Tian & Xiaosheng Han & Jiawen Li & Qing Xia, 2023. "Can the water resources tax policy effectively stimulate the water saving behavior of social water users? A DSGE model embedded in water resources tax," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(3), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Shouyang Wang & Xun Zhang & Lin Zhao, 2020. "Why the Effects of Oil Price Shocks on China’s Economy are Changing," The Energy Journal, , vol. 41(6), pages 107-132, November.
    14. Argentiero, Amedeo & Bollino, Carlo Andrea & Micheli, Silvia & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2018. "Renewable energy sources policies in a Bayesian DSGE model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 60-68.
    15. Garcia Silva, Pablo & Gutierrez Schweitzer, Maria de los Angeles & Medina Guzman, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Macroeconomic Impact of the Energy Transition," MPRA Paper 123225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Finn E. Kydland & Fei Mao & William T. Gavin, 2011. "Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and Energy Price Shocks," 2011 Meeting Papers 1160, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Lance J Bachmeier & Benjamin D Keen, 2023. "Modeling the Asymmetric Effects of an Oil Price Shock," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 19(3), pages 1-47, August.
    18. Sun, Chuanwang & Xu, Zhehong & Zheng, Hongwei, 2023. "Green transformation of the building industry and the government policy effects: Policy simulation based on the DSGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 268(C).
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    20. Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick & Oyekola, Olayinka, 2015. "Oil Prices and the Dynamics of Output and Real Exchange Rate," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2015/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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