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Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • William Gavin

    (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)

  • Benjamin Keen

    (University of Oklahoma)

  • Finn Kydland

    (University of California Santa Barbara)

Abstract

This paper develops a monetary model with taxes to account for the time-varying effects of energy shocks on output and hours worked in post-World War II U.S. data. In our model, the real effects of an energy shock are amplified when the monetary authority responds to that shock by changing its inflation objective. Specifically, higher inflation raises households' nominal capital gains taxes since those taxes are not indexed to inflation. The increase in taxes behaves as a negative wealth effect and generates an immediate decline in output, investment, and hours worked. The large drop in investment then causes a gradual but very persistent decline in the capital stock. That protracted decline in the capital stock is associated with an extended period of low labor productivity and high inflation. The real effects from the increase in nominal capital gains taxes are magnified by the tax on nominal interest income, which is also not indexed to inflation. A prolonged period of higher inflation and lower labor productivity following a negative energy shock is consistent with the stagflation of the 1970s. The negative effects, however, subsided greatly after 1980 due to the Volcker disinflation policy which prevented the Fed from accommodating negative energy shocks with higher inflation. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • William Gavin & Benjamin Keen & Finn Kydland, 2015. "Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 694-707, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:13-128
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2014.07.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Renato Agurto & Fernando Fuentes & Carlos Garcia & Esteban Skoknic, 2013. "Power Generation and the Business Cycle: The Impact of Delaying Investment," ILADES-Georgetown University Working Papers inv290, Ilades-Georgetown University, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Bussines.
    2. Qureshi, Irfan, 2015. "What are monetary policy shocks?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1086, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Realized capital gains; Tax code; Energy shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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