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Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74

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  • Alpanda, Sami
  • Peralta-Alva, Adrian

Abstract

The market value of U.S. corporations was nearly halved following the oil crisis of October 1973. Real energy prices more than doubled by the end of the decade, increasing energy costs and spurring innovation in energy-saving technologies by corporations. This paper uses a neo-classical growth model to quantify the impact of the increase in energy prices on the market value of U.S. corporations. In the model, corporations adopt energy-saving technologies as a response to the energy price shock and the price of installed capital falls due to investment irreversibility. The model calibrated to match the subsequent decline in energy consumption in the U.S. generates a 24% decline in market valuation - accounting for nearly half of what is observed in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Alpanda, Sami & Peralta-Alva, Adrian, 2007. "Oil Crisis, Energy-Saving Technological Change and the Stock Market Crash of 1973-74," MPRA Paper 5896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:5896
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    3. Kilponen, Juha & Verona, Fabio, 2016. "Testing the Q theory of investment in the frequency domain," Research Discussion Papers 32/2016, Bank of Finland.
    4. William Gavin & Benjamin Keen & Finn Kydland, 2015. "Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and the Real Effects of Energy Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 694-707, July.
    5. Takeshi Niizeki, 2012. "Energy-Saving Technological Change in Japan," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd11-218, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    6. Yazid Dissou & Lilia Karnizova & Qian Sun, 2015. "Industry-level Econometric Estimates of Energy-Capital-Labor Substitution with a Nested CES Production Function," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 107-121, March.
    7. Finn E. Kydland & Fei Mao & William T. Gavin, 2011. "Monetary Policy, the Tax Code, and Energy Price Shocks," 2011 Meeting Papers 1160, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Sami Alpanda & Uluc Aysun, 2010. "Bank globalization and the balance sheet channel of monetary transmission," Working papers 2010-20, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    9. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Bond vs stock market's Q: Testing for stability across frequencies and over time," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 138-150.
    10. Xin Long Xu & Sen Qiao & Hsing Hung Chen, 2020. "Exploring the efficiency of new energy generation: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Energy & Environment, , vol. 31(3), pages 389-404, May.
    11. Robert Kirkby Author-Email: robertkirkby@gmail.com|, 2017. "Convergence of Discretized Value Function Iteration," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 49(1), pages 117-153, January.
    12. Vershinina, K.Yu. & Shlegel, N.E. & Strizhak, P.A., 2019. "Recovery of waste-derived and low-grade components within fuel slurries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1266-1277.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil crisis; stock market crash; technological change;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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