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The Information Technology Revolution and the Puzzling Trends in Tobin’s average q

  • Adrian Peralta-Alva

    (University of Miami)

A growing literature argues that the Information Technology rev- olution caused the stock market crash of 1973-1974, its subsequent stagnation and eventual recovery. This paper employs general equi- librium theory to test whether this good news hypothesis is consistent with the behavior of US equity prices and with the trends in corpo- rate output, investment and consumption. I …nd it is not. A model based exclusively on good news can make equity prices fall as much as in the data but it must also imply a strong economic expansion right when the US economy stagnated. However, when the observed productivity slowdown in old production methods is incorporated into the model consistency with major macroeconomic aggregates can be achieved and a 20% drop in equity values can be accounted for. (JEL E44, O33, O41)

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0511007.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: 03 Nov 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0511007
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 35
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  1. Olson, Lars J., 1989. "Stochastic growth with irreversible investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 101-129, February.
  2. Brock, William A. & Mirman, Leonard J., 1972. "Optimal economic growth and uncertainty: The discounted case," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 479-513, June.
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  9. Per Krusell & Lee E. Ohanian & JosÈ-Victor RÌos-Rull & Giovanni L. Violante, 2000. "Capital-Skill Complementarity and Inequality: A Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(5), pages 1029-1054, September.
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  11. Peralta-Alva, Adrian, 2003. "Comment on "Growth cycles and market crashes"," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 147-148, July.
  12. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
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  14. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2001. "On Adjusting the HP-Filter for the Frequency of Observations," CESifo Working Paper Series 479, CESifo Group Munich.
  15. Michele Boldrin & Adrian Peralta-Alva, 2009. "What happened to the U.S. stock market? accounting for the past 50 years," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 627-646.
  16. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "Taxes, Regulations, and the Value of U.S. and U.K. Corporations," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000715, UCLA Department of Economics.
  17. Boyan Jovanovic & Jeremy Greenwood, 1999. "The Information-Technology Revolution and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 116-122, May.
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  19. Boyan Jovanovic & Peter L. Rousseau, 2002. "Mergers as Reallocation," NBER Working Papers 9279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  21. Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. ""Tobin's Q" and the rate of investment in general equilibrium," Staff Report 40, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  22. Ferguson, Thomas & Temin, Peter, 2004. "Comment on," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 64(03), pages 872-876, September.
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