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Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?

  • Muriel Barlet
  • Laure Crusson
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    [eng] The two “ oil shocks ” of the 1970s cut French GDP growth. Since that period, sudden oil-price increases have been viewed as a major cause of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil-price rises on French growth. Our results indicate a breakdown of the link between oil prices and economic activity in the early 1980s. Over the period 1980-2006, our estimates show a slight negative effect of oil-price increases only in low-growth phases. Our models also point to slacker foreign demand after an oil-price rise – a phenomenon that indirectly affects GDP growth. [fre] Depuis les deux chocs pétroliers des années 1970 , les fortes hausses du prix du pétrole font craindre un ralentissement de l’activité économique. Nous estimons des modèles de type VAR et de type Markov-Switching pour mesurer l’impact des hausses du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française. Nos résultats mettent en avant un changement de régime au début des années 1980. Après cette date, nous trouvons un effet significatif direct des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance du PIB uniquement dans les périodes de croissance faible. Nos modèles mettent également en évidence un léger ralentissement de la demande étrangère adressée à la France consécutif à un choc pétrolier. Ce ralentissement pèse faiblement sur la croissance du PIB.

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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.3406/ecop.2009.7898
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    Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Économie & prévision.

    Volume (Year): 188 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 ()
    Pages: 23-41

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    Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2009_num_188_2_7898
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2009.7898
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/revue/ecop

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    1. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    2. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Erratum [Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach]," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 555, November.
    3. Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2003. "On The Determination Of The Number Of Regimes In Markov-Switching Autoregressive Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 237-252, 03.
    4. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
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    6. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1999. "Sectoral Job Creation and Destruction Responses to Oil Price Changes," NBER Working Papers 7095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Nicolas Riedinger & Pierre Biscourp & Cédric Audenis, 2002. "Le prix des carburants est plus sensible à une hausse qu'à une baisse du brut," Économie et Statistique, Programme National Persée, vol. 359(1), pages 149-165.
    8. Lardic, Sandrine & Mignon, Valérie, 2008. "Oil prices and economic activity: An asymmetric cointegration approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 847-855, May.
    9. Raymond, Jennie E & Rich, Robert W, 1997. "Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Markov State-Switching Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 193-213, May.
    10. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0362, European Central Bank.
    11. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June.
    12. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
    13. Hooker, Mark A., 1996. "What happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 195-213, October.
    14. T. Le_barbanchon, 2007. "The Changing response to oil price shocks in France : a DSGE type approach," Documents de Travail de la DESE - Working Papers of the DESE g2007-07, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, DESE.
    15. Kiseok Lee & Shawn Ni & Ronald A. Ratti, 1995. "Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 39-56.
    16. Hamilton, James D., 1996. "This is what happened to the oil price-macroeconomy relationship," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 215-220, October.
    17. Nathan S. Balke & Stephen P. A. Brown & Mine Yücel, 1998. "Crude oil and gasoline prices: an asymmetric relationship?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q 1, pages 2-11.
    18. Matteo Manera & Alessandro Cologni, 2006. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Shocks on Output Growth: A Markov-Switching Analysis for the G-7 Countries," Working Papers 2006.29, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
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