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Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?

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  • Laure Crusson
  • Muriel Barlet

Abstract

[eng] The two “ oil shocks ” of the 1970s cut French GDP growth. Since that period, sudden oil-price increases have been viewed as a major cause of economic slowdown. We estimate VAR models and Markov-Switching models to evaluate the impact of oil-price rises on French growth. Our results indicate a breakdown of the link between oil prices and economic activity in the early 1980s. Over the period 1980-2006, our estimates show a slight negative effect of oil-price increases only in low-growth phases. Our models also point to slacker foreign demand after an oil-price rise – a phenomenon that indirectly affects GDP growth. [fre] Depuis les deux chocs pétroliers des années 1970 , les fortes hausses du prix du pétrole font craindre un ralentissement de l’activité économique. Nous estimons des modèles de type VAR et de type Markov-Switching pour mesurer l’impact des hausses du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française. Nos résultats mettent en avant un changement de régime au début des années 1980. Après cette date, nous trouvons un effet significatif direct des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance du PIB uniquement dans les périodes de croissance faible. Nos modèles mettent également en évidence un léger ralentissement de la demande étrangère adressée à la France consécutif à un choc pétrolier. Ce ralentissement pèse faiblement sur la croissance du PIB.

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  • Laure Crusson & Muriel Barlet, 2009. "Quel impact des variations du prix du pétrole sur la croissance française ?," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 188(2), pages 23-41.
    • Handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_2009_num_188_2_7898
    DOI: 10.3406/ecop.2009.7898
    Note: DOI:10.3406/ecop.2009.7898
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