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The Role of Speculation in the Determination of Energy Prices

Author

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  • Umar M. Mustapha

    (Faculty of Engineering and Surveying, University of Southern Queensland, Australia)

Abstract

This paper seeks to evaluate the role of speculation in the determination of global energy prices. Designed as a case study, five major oil producing countries are the focus of this positivistic study: Nigeria, Mexico, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Data is collected through secondary sources. One-tailed and two-tailed tests carried out on the relationship between speculation and oil prices for each of the five countries yield critical values lower than the alpha. Thus, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternate hypothesis that ‘there is a significant and positive correlation between commodity derivatives (oil futures) and oil prices’. The study found that while there is a positive relationship between speculation in the commodity derivatives market and oil prices, such a relationship is at best weak and attributes the high prices to several factors, including political instability, high and rising demand from overheating economies such as China, and falling production levels, among others. The paper emphasized the need to enhance the physical and financial transparency of the energy market, as well as the operation of the supply and demand fundamentals, including regulating against insider trading and market manipulation practices, strengthening the reporting requirements of the dealers in the market, and strengthening capital adequacy and margin requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Umar M. Mustapha, 2012. "The Role of Speculation in the Determination of Energy Prices," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 279-291.
  • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2012-04-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jana Drutarovská, 2012. "Vplyv špekulácií na vývoj cien ropy," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 192-201.
    2. Veronika Fodorová, 2012. "Tradičné teórie medzinárodných vzťahov ako východisko pre rozvoj teórií európskej integrácie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 170-181.
    3. Katarína Brocková, 2012. "Nová európska investičná politika a jej dopad na osud bilaterálnych investičných dohôd členských štátov EÚ (2. časť)," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 27-35.
    4. Martin Grančay, 2012. "Vplyv subvencií na celkovú užitočnosť v malom a veľkom štáte - neoklasický grafický model," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 16-26.
    5. Monika Mrlinová, 2012. "Vývoj multilaterálních dohod ve světovém obchodě v kontextu historie až po současnost," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 53-72.
    6. Lucia Kužmová, 2012. "Inštitucionálne modely hospodárskej diplomacie - príklad Nemecka, Rakúska, Švajčiarska a Slovenska," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 153-169.
    7. Ľubomír Čech, 2012. "Faktory rozvoja a radikalizácie islamu v regióne Strednej Ázie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 73-85.
    8. Stanislaw Konopacki, 2012. "Problem of Eastern partnership during Polish presidency in the European Union in 2011," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzťahov, vol. 10(4), pages 119-128.
    9. Nóra Szikorová, 2012. "Súčasné a očakávané budúce trendy prílevu čínskych priamych investícií do Afriky," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 99-108.
    10. Ľudmila Lipková, 2012. "Ekonomické reformy v Kórejskej ľudovodemokratickej republike," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 36-52.
    11. Marta Zágoršeková, 2012. "Zen a buddhistická tradícia súčasného Japonska," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 7-15.
    12. Zuzana Stuchlíková, 2012. "Japan´s lost decade: on the development of the Japanese economy in the 1990s," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 129-152.
    13. Klaudia Pyteľová, 2012. "Špecifiká postavenia štátu ako subjektu medzinárodného práva," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 109-118.
    14. Mikuláš Černota, 2012. "Spoločenské a ekologické dopady zvyšovania hladiny morí na mobilitu ľudskej populácie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 86-98.
    15. Katarína Cséfalvayová, 2012. "Právna úprava zdieľania medzinárodných vodných tokov: kritické zhodnotenie," Medzinarodne vztahy (Journal of International Relations), Ekonomická univerzita, Fakulta medzinárodných vzÅ¥ahov, vol. 10(4), pages 182-191.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Oil Futures; Derivatives; Markets Supply and Demand; Oil Producing Countries;

    JEL classification:

    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting

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